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Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation survey shows that 56% of Texans support legislation to authorize the construction and operation of Destination Resort Casinos

April 30, 2024

Legislation supporting online sports gaming also receives strong support from 47% of Texans, with Texans deadlocked at 41% for and 42% against allowing sportsbooks to operate inside professional sports venues.

(Dallas, Texas, April 30, 2024) – New polling from the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation (TxHPF) shows that Texans from all political and demographic segments are strongly in favor of legislation that authorizes the construction and operation of Texas-based destination resort casinos.

Approximately three-fifths of Democrats, Republicans and Independents support Destination Resort Casinos, while less than one-third oppose the construction and operation of these casinos in Texas. Twice as many men support than oppose destination resort casino gaming by a 61% to 27% margin, with support among women lower, but still a majority at 54%.  African Americans register 68% support for casino gaming, while Hispanics and Anglos register 58% and 54%, support respectively. Most surprising, however, was that a majority (52%) of Texans who self-identify as “Born-Again” Christians support destination resort casinos.

Legislation that would authorize online sports gaming and sports gaming occurring inside of Texas-based professional sports arenas and stadiums maintains significant support among Texans, with 47% supporting online sports gaming and 41% supporting (and 42% opposing) sportsbooks inside of Texas professional sports venues.  But men, particularly African American and Hispanic men, overwhelmingly support online sports gaming and the establishment of sportsbooks inside professional sports teams’ stadiums and arenas.

The survey, which was conducted between April 5 and April 10 among a representative sample of 1,600 Texas likely voters, has an overall margin of error of 2.45%.

“Since the reauthorization of parimutuel betting in Texas in 1991, various members of the Texas Legislature have endeavored to expand Texas-based gaming in some form or other, with the most recent initiatives being in the sports gaming and destination resort casino gaming sectors,” noted Jason Villalba, Chairman and CEO of the TXHPF.  “Given the results of this survey, it is clear that the public appetite for additional gaming opportunities now matches the political appetite, not only with traditional supporters of gaming, but also with church-going Texans and women – that is a major change from what we have seen in recent legislative cycles,” continued Villalba.

Mark P. Jones, the TxHPF’s Chief Information and Analytics Officer and the Fellow in Political Science at Rice University’s Baker Institute noted that “there is a strong majority consensus among Texans across 21 socio-demographic sub-groups in favor of the casino legislation.  Regardless of gender, ethnicity/race, age, education, level of partisanship or even religion, an absolute majority of every sub-group of Texans supports the construction and operation of Destination Resort Casinos in Texas.”

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About the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation

The Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation operates as a nonpartisan, nonprofit 501(c)(3) organization, dedicated and committed to analyzing and exploring the political, economic, social, demographic, and familial attitudes and behaviors of Texas Hispanics. The Foundation conducts surveys, polls, research, data collection and analysis concerning the Hispanic population in Texas. You can find more information about the Foundation at www.TxHPF.org.

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Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation survey shows 54% of Texas likely voters approve of Gov. Abbott’s handling of the situation at the border compared to only 24% who approve of President Biden’s handling of the border situation

April 24, 2024

Conversely, 57% of all Texas likely voters and 58% of Texas Hispanic likely voters oppose Governor Abbott’s plan to use public tax dollars to help subsidize private school tuition.

Further, Texans are split between a narrow majority (56%) who believe abortion should be legal through either 12 (29%) or 23-24 (27%) weeks of pregnancy and those (44%) who believe it should be illegal unless the mother’s life is at risk (15%) or also if the pregnancy was due to rape or incest (29%).

(Dallas, Texas, April 24, 2024) — Gov. Greg Abbott receives high marks from Texans regarding border security with fully 54% of all Texas likely voters approving his handling of the situation at the United States-Mexico border, according to new polling from the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation (TxHPF). Likewise, Hispanic Texas likely voters support Gov. Abbott’s border security policies by similar margins, though less than a majority at 47%.

Gov. Abbott’s hallmark education policy, using public tax dollars to provide subsidies to Texas parents whose children attend private school, does not fare as well, with 57% of all Texas likely voters in opposition to the use of public tax dollars for private tuition.  Hispanic likely voters oppose the “voucher” plan by 58% and African American likely voters oppose the plan by 68%.      

The survey, which was conducted between April 5 and April 10 among a representative sample of 1,600 Texas likely voters, has an overall margin of error of 2.45%.  

Solely with respect to the Hispanic oversample, the survey maintains a margin of error of 4.88%, making the TxHPF’s Hispanic data, the most detailed in Texas.

“With respect to border security, Gov. Abbott has his hand squarely on the pulse of what Texas voters want.  From busing immigrants to other states, to supporting high levels of spending on border security, these numbers show that all Texans, including Hispanics, support Governor Abbott’s muscular policies on these issues,” said Jason Villalba, Chairman and CEO of the TXHPF.  “In stark contrast however, Governor Abbott’s top education priority, which provides for using public tax dollars to subsidize private school tuition, is universally opposed by Texans from all segments: urban or rural, Anglo or Hispanic, male and female. This issue will not win him new votes in a general election, and it could cut into his support among primary voters,” continued Villalba.          

Mark P. Jones, the TxHPF’s Chief Information and Analytics Officer and the Fellow in Political Science at Rice University’s Baker Institute noted that “61% of likely voters support Governor Abbott’s policy of spending $3.5 billion annually on border security, including 86% of Republicans, 64% of Independents and 33% of Democrats, as well as 58% of Hispanics.”

Jones also noted the existence of a sharp partisan split in regard to abortion policy in Texas, commenting that “76% of Republicans want abortion be illegal except when the woman’s life is at risk or when the woman’s life is at risk or in the case of rape or incest, while 90% of Democrats want abortion to be legal through either 12 or 23-24 weeks of pregnancy.”

And, in regard to the Hispanic community, Jones commented that “contrary to some conventional wisdom, two-thirds of Hispanic Catholics prefer an abortion policy which allows for abortions to take place through at least 12 weeks of pregnancy, with Hispanic opposition to abortion  concentrated among the state’s growing population of Born-Again Christian Hispanics, two-thirds of whom want abortion restricted at the most to instances where the woman’s life is at risk or when the pregnancy is the result of rape or incest.

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About the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation

The Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation operates as a nonpartisan, nonprofit 501(c)(3) organization, dedicated and committed to analyzing and exploring the political, economic, social, demographic, and familial attitudes and behaviors of Texas Hispanics. The Foundation conducts surveys, polls, research, data collection and analysis concerning the Hispanic population in Texas. You can find more information about the Foundation at www.TxHPF.org.

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Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation survey shows Trump leads Biden among all Texas likely voters and Hispanic likely voters by 12% and 4%, respectively

April 16, 2024

Allred within 5% of Cruz among all Texas likely voters and leads Cruz by 5% among Hispanic likely voters.

(Dallas, Texas, April 16, 2024) — Former President and Republican nominee Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden by 12 percentage points among likely voters in Texas, according to new polling from the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation (TxHPF). More surprising, however, is Trump’s strength with Hispanic likely voters, where he leads Biden by 4 percentage points, 41% to 37%, driven largely by evangelical Hispanics and Hispanic males.

The survey, which was conducted between April 5 and April 10 among a representative sample of 1,600 Texas likely voters, has an overall margin of error of 2.45%.

Solely with respect to the Hispanic oversample, the survey maintains a margin of error of 4.88%, making the TxHPF’s Hispanic data, the most detailed in Texas.

“Over the most recent election cycles, Texas Hispanics have shown a growing willingness to consider, and ultimately vote for, Republican candidates, especially at the Presidential level,” said TxHPF CEO Jason Villalba. “This, however, is the first time we have seen a Republican statewide candidate attract a majority of Texas likely Hispanic voters. Trump’s appeal to Hispanic evangelicals and men has helped him cobble together a level of support from Hispanics not seen since George W. Bush.”

“As evidenced by some of the data we have seen recently in historically Democrat strongholds of Texas, Democrats can no longer assume that they will automatically receive an overwhelming majority of the Hispanic vote,” said former state Sen. Leticia Van de Putte, a member of the TxHPF Board of Directors. “While Democrats continue to see strengthening electoral support resulting from urbanization and with more progressive voters moving to Texas from other parts of the country, the Hispanic vote is clearly in play. Both political parties must vie for the vote of Hispanics. The party that comes out on top in the coming battles will hold political power in Texas for a generation.”

According to the TxHPF’s survey, the race for U.S. Senate in Texas is taking a much different trajectory than the race for president. Among all likely voters in Texas, Democratic challenger Congressman Colin Allred is within 5 percentage points of two-term U.S. Senator Ted Cruz. In an inverse of the presidential race, Congressman Allred leads Sen. Cruz by 5 percentage points among Texas Hispanic likely voters, 44% to 39 %.

“Senator Cruz is significantly underperforming Trump in all major voter categories around the state,” added Villalba. “Conversely, Allred continues to over perform the support received by President Biden in Texas.”

According to TxHPF Chief Information and Analytics Officer, Dr. Mark P. Jones, “while today a Trump victory over Biden in Texas looks to be a foregone conclusion, Cruz is facing a much more competitive challenge from Allred, a race that is certain to garner national attention as one of only two contests where Democrats have any hope of flipping a Republican-held seat as they attempt to retain control of the U.S. Senate.”

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About the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation

The Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation operates as a nonpartisan, nonprofit 501(c)(3) organization, dedicated and committed to analyzing and exploring the political, economic, social, demographic, and familial attitudes and behaviors of Texas Hispanics. The Foundation conducts surveys, polls, research, data collection and analysis concerning the Hispanic population in Texas. You can find more information about the Foundation at www.TxHPF.org.

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TxHPF survey shows Trump has early lead on DeSantis among Texas Republicans

May 24, 2023

Poll also identifies Cruz edge against lesser-known challengers.

(Dallas, Texas, May 25, 2023) — Former President Donald Trump holds a comfortable lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis among Texas registered voters who say they might participate in a March 2024 Republican primary, according to new polling from the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation (TxHPF). 

In a Texas Republican presidential primary restricted to Trump and DeSantis, 57% of Texas GOP primary voters would vote for Trump and 36% for DeSantis, with 5% undecided and 2% responding that they would not vote if Trump and DeSantis were their only two options. DeSantis announced his long-expected candidacy Wednesday and is the early favorite among several Republican candidates to emerge as Trump’s chief rival for the nomination.

“Donald Trump is the clear Republican frontrunner in Texas for now, but there is a long way to go,” said TxHPF President Jason Villalba. “Texas Republicans regard Trump favorably and he will be difficult to beat for the nomination here, but DeSantis certainly has a base of support upon which he can build. There is also time for other candidates to emerge and make this more than a two-person race for the nomination.”

Four 2024 presidential election scenarios were presented to Texas registered voters: Trump vs. President Joe Biden, DeSantis vs. Biden, Trump vs. Vice President Kamala Harris, DeSantis vs. Harris. Surveys of Texas registered voters tend to be more favorable for Democratic candidates and less favorable for Republican candidates than surveys of likely voters conducted in the months before an election.

  • Trump’s vote intention (44%) surpasses that of Biden (42%) by 2 percentage points. 6% intend to vote for minor party candidates and 8% remain undecided.
  • DeSantis’s vote intention (44%) surpasses that of Biden (42%) by 2 percentage points. 5% intend to vote for minor party candidates and 9% remain undecided.
  • Trump’s vote intention (46%) surpasses that of Harris (39%) by 7 percentage points. 6% intend to vote for minor party candidates and 9% remain undecided.
  • DeSantis’s vote intention (45%) surpasses that of Harris (40%) by 5 percentage points. 5% intend to vote for minor party candidates and 10% remain undecided.

The poll also measured the still-forming contest for the Texas seat in the U.S. Senate now held by Sen. Ted Cruz.

A picture containing text, graphics, font, poster

Description automatically generatedIn a March 2024 Democratic Texas U.S. Senate primary featuring U.S. Congressman Colin Allred, State Sen. Roland Gutierrez and former Midland City Council Member John Love, 33% of Democratic primary voters would vote for Allred, 22% for Gutierrez and 4% for Love. 41% of these voters remain undecided.

Cruz leads Allred 47% to 40%, with 9% undecided and 4% voting for minor party candidates in a hypothetical November 2024 race for the Senate. However, Allred is still unknown to many voters; 49% of registered voters do not enough about Allred to have either a favorable or unfavorable opinion about him, while only 6% do not know enough about Cruz to have an opinion about the senator.

“Allred is the early leader among Democrats, but anyone who wins the Democratic nomination will have a difficult race against Cruz,” said Dr. Mark P. Jones, TxHPF Director of Research and Analytics. “It will be critical for the Democratic nominee to introduce themselves to Texans over the course of the next year and make their case for change.”

Texas registered voters were asked to provide favorable and unfavorable evaluations of 10 Texas political figures, with an additional option that they didn’t know enough about them to have an opinion: Cruz, Gov. Greg Abbott, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, U.S. Sens. Cruz and John Cornyn, U.S. Reps. Allred, Joaquin Castro and Dan Crenshaw, Attorney General Ken Paxton, Gutierrez and 2022 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Beto O’Rourke.

The five Texas political figures with the highest favorable ratings among Texas registered voters are Abbott (53%), Cruz (49%), O’Rourke (46%), Patrick (45%) and Paxton (42%).

The five Texas political figures with the highest unfavorable ratings among Texas registered voters are O’Rourke (45%), Cruz (45%), Abbott (43%), Cornyn (43%) and Paxton (40%).

This is the second report of three drawing on a survey of 1,000 Texas registered voters carried out between May 8 and May 17 of 2023. It has a margin of error of +/- 2.9% for the analysis of all registered voters and a margin of error of +/-4.8% and +/-5.1% for the analysis of Republican and Democratic primary voters respectively. The responses are weighted to provide a population that is representative of Texas registered voters.

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About the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation The Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation operates as a nonpartisan, nonprofit 501(c)(3) organization, dedicated and committed to analyzing and exploring the political, economic, social, demographic, and familial attitudes and behaviors of Texas Hispanics. The Foundation conducts surveys, polls, research, data collection and analysis concerning the Hispanic population in Texas. You can find more information about the Foundation at www.TxHPF.org.

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Texans overwhelmingly support property tax relief proposals, TxHPF survey finds

May 23, 2023

Several GOP priorities garner support in poll.

(Dallas, Texas, May 23, 2023) — According to new statewide polling from the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation (TxHPF), at least 85 percent of Texans support both Senate Bill 3, which would increase the residential homestead exemption from $40,000 to $70,000 (if under age 65) or to $100,000 (65 and older), and House Bill 2, which would decrease the yearly appraisal cap from 10% to 5% for residential property and extend this benefit to commercial property.

Conducted earlier this month, the poll found support for Republican leaders’ approach to several issues that have been front and center at this year’s session of the Texas Legislature.

When forced to choose between SB 3 and HB 2, 50% of Texans opt for SB 3 and 38% for HB 2, with 12% of Texans opposing both property tax relief proposals.

“Texans certainly support property-tax relief,” said TxHPF President Jason Villalba, a former State Representative from Dallas. “There is more support for expanding the homestead exemption than there is for lower appraisal caps, but both ideas are very popular. Given the significant burdens that high property taxes place on Texas families, it should come as no surprise that both the Senate and the House tax proposals receive strong bipartisan support. The data from this report makes that clear.”

The tax issue is one of several being hashed out between leaders of the Texas House and Senate as the May 29 end of the regular legislative session draws near.

Another issue in the spotlight during the Legislature’s final week is that of sending students to private schools with taxpayer dollars, which is also known as private-school vouchers or Education Savings Accounts (ESAs). 58% of Texans support (25% strongly) and 42% oppose (29% strongly) legislation similar to the bill that the Texas Senate approved to create widely available Education Savings Accounts. The poll found that 70% of Black Texans support SB 8 compared to 59% of Hispanic and 55% of white Texans. And, the poll found majority support for SB 8 was relatively equal across the state, with residents in rural and semi-rural counties just as likely to support SB 8 as residents of suburban and urban counties.

Texans voice support in the poll for several high-profile bills that social conservatives have championed throughout the session, including:

  • 66% of Texans support (55% strongly) Senate Bill 14, which would prohibit medical professionals from providing puberty-inhibiting drugs, cross-sex hormones and surgical interventions to children under the age of 18. One-third (34%) of Texans oppose (26% strongly) SB 14.
  • 70% of Texans support (54% strongly) Senate Bill 15, which would prohibit Texas public university athletic teams from allowing a student to compete on a team designated for one biological sex if that student’s biological sex is opposite that designated for the team. One third (30%) of Texans oppose (18% strongly) SB 15.
  • 64% of Texans support (49% strongly) Senate Bill 12 that would classify drag shows as sexually oriented performances, which would prohibit individuals under the age of 18 from attending. One third (36%) of Texans oppose (27% strongly) SB 12.

“Texans tend to support the socially conservative bills that state and legislative leaders are pushing this year,” said Dr. Mark Jones, TxHPF Director of Research and Analytics. “While these bills generate a very contentious debate and some fierce opposition, they are supported by fairly wide margins when you look at all Texas voters.”

Texans voice stronger support in the poll for Gov. Greg Abbott’s handling of the situation at the Texas-Mexico border than President Joe Biden’s handling of that situation. In fact, the poll found strong support for a number of specific border policies that Abbott and other Republican leaders have championed:

  • 74% of Texans support (52% strongly) sending the Texas National Guard to patrol the border.
  • 74% of Texans support (48% strongly) the creation of a Texas Border Protection Unit.
  • 71% of Texans support (46% strongly) sending DPS officers to patrol the border.
  • 62% of Texans support (46% strongly) Texas building a border wall.
  • 60% of Texans support (37% strongly) Texas spending $2.5-$3.0 billion a year on border security.

“Hispanic Texans are less likely to support all five border security policies than are white and Black Texans, but more than three-fifths of Hispanics still support sending the Texas National Guard and DPS to patrol the border and creating a Texas border patrol unit,” Dr. Jones said. “Border security and immigration continue to be priority issues for many Texas voters, and Texans tend to support the Governor’s approach.”

This is the first report of three drawing on a survey of 1,000 Texas registered voters carried out between May 8 and May 17 of 2023 (confidence interval of +/- 2.9%). The responses are weighted to provide a population that is representative of Texas registered voters.

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About the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation The Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation operates as a nonpartisan, nonprofit 501(c)(3) organization, dedicated and committed to analyzing and exploring the political, economic, social, demographic, and familial attitudes and behaviors of Texas Hispanics. The Foundation conducts surveys, polls, research, data collection and analysis concerning the Hispanic population in Texas. You can find more information about the Foundation at www.TxHPF.org.

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Evangelical Protestant Hispanics split from others on candidates and issues, Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation poll shows

October 5, 2022

(DALLAS, TEXAS) — Hispanic voters in Texas prefer Democrat Beto O’Rourke in the Texas governor’s race, but those who identify themselves as Evangelical Protestants are much more likely to side with Republican Gov. Greg Abbott and side with Abbott on issues, according to new polling from the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation (TXHPF) and four TEGNA television stations in Texas.

The latest report from the groups’ September polling shows that while O’Rourke leads Abbott 51% to 39% among all Hispanic likely voters, Evangelical Protestant Hispanics overwhelmingly favor Abbott, 69% to 19%. O’Rourke is the choice among Catholic (56% to 33%) and non-religious (64% to 27%) Hispanic likely voters. In addition, Evangelical Protestant Hispanics are significantly more likely to support six immigration and border security policies that Abbott has implemented. In addition, Catholic Hispanics are much more likely than Evangelical Protestant Hispanics to support modifying current Texas abortion law to make it easier for a woman to obtain an abortion.

“The different political preferences among Hispanic Texans illustrate the diversity of this critical population of voters,” said Jason Villalba, CEO of the TXHPF. “There is not a monolithic Hispanic voting bloc in Texas. Just like we see with other groups of voters, Hispanics’ religious preferences can go a long way in predicting how they will vote in elections.”

A full report of the latest findings from the poll is available here. Among the information contained in the poll:

  • Among Hispanic women, O’Rourke leads 54% to 33%. Among Hispanic men, O’Rourke leads 48% to 45%.
  • O’Rourke holds a two-to-one advantage among younger Hispanics belonging to Generation Z and the Millennial generational cohort, who, combined, are expected to account for at least two-fifths of Texas Hispanic voters this fall. The two candidates are effectively tied among Hispanics belonging to the Baby Boomer/Silent Generation cohort and to Generation X.
  • Hispanics living in a household where Spanish is the dominant language favor O’Rourke 67% to 26%. Among Hispanics where English is the dominant language, O’Rourke’s lead is 49% to 43%.
  • 59% of Catholic Hispanics would modify current Texas abortion law to make it easier for a woman to obtain an abortion, while just 23% of Evangelical Protestant Hispanics would support changing state law to make it easier for a woman to obtain an abortion.

“Just as is the case within the Anglo population, Hispanics who are Evangelical Protestant overwhelmingly favor Abbott over O’Rourke,” said Mark P. Jones, TXHPF Chief Analytics and Information Officer.  “The policy and partisan preferences of Hispanic Evangelical Protestants are notably more similar to those of their Anglo brethren than they are to those of non-religious, and in some instances Catholic, Hispanics.”

This is the third report drawing on data from a survey of 1,172 likely Texas voters that took place between September 6 and September 15 of 2022 (confidence interval of +/- 2.9%). The responses are weighted to provide a population that is representative of Texas Hispanic registered voters. As part of the larger study, a population of 468 (margin of error +/- 4.5%) Texas Hispanic likely voters was surveyed.

Four TEGNA stations in Texas — WFAA, KHOU, KVUE and KENS — co-sponsored the poll with the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation.

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About the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation
The Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation operates as a nonpartisan, nonprofit 501(c)(3) organization, dedicated and committed to analyzing and exploring the political, economic, social, demographic, and familial attitudes and behaviors of Texas Hispanics. The Foundation conducts surveys, polls, research, data collection and analysis concerning the Hispanic population in Texas. You can find more information about the Foundation at www.TxHPF.org.

Download the Report

Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation poll shows majority support Abbott border policies

September 29, 2022

(DALLAS, TEXAS) — Public support for Gov. Greg Abbott’s approach to border security and immigration has helped propel him to a lead in his race for re-election, according to newly released polling data from the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation (TXHPF) and TEGNA television stations in Texas.

An absolute majority of Texas likely voters support six border policies that Abbott has implemented, while between one-fifth and one-third of likely voters oppose these policies. Support for Abbott’s approach on the high-profile issue helps explain the polling lead he has consistently maintained: Polling that the TXHPF released earlier this week showed that Abbott leads O’Rourke 51% to 44% among likely voters and 53% to 43% among the most likely (almost certain) voters.

Specifically:

  • 66% of likely voters support Texas state and local law enforcement arresting people who cross the border with Mexico illegally, while 22% oppose.
  • 60% of Texas likely voters support Texas deploying the Texas National Guard to patrol the U.S.-Mexico border, while 28% oppose.
  • 60% of Texas likely voters support Texas sending the Texas DPS to patrol the U.S.- Mexico border, while 27% oppose.
  • 57% of Texas likely voters support Texas building a border wall, while 34% oppose.
  • 54% of Texas likely voters support Texas paying to send asylum seekers by bus to Chicago, New York City and Washington, D.C., while 31% oppose.
  • 54% of Texas likely voters support Texas spending $1.5 billion every year on border security, while 32% oppose.

All six policies draw support from a majority of white voters. Three policies garner support from a majority of Hispanic voters and one policy gets support from a majority of Black voters.

Only one in three (34%) likely voters approve of Biden’s handling of the situation at the U.S.-Mexico border, significantly less than the 56% who approve of Abbott’s handling of the situation at the border.

“Support for Governor Abbott’s approach to border security is a major factor in the lead that he holds over Beto O’Rourke as we enter the final weeks of the campaign,” said Jason Villalba, CEO of the TXHPF. “At a time when many issues divide clearly along partisan lines, the issue of border security has helped Abbott attract independents and some Democrats, as well as overwhelming support from Republicans. As long as border security remains a major issue in the race, the Governor’s lead will be difficult to overcome.”

The poll found that voters want some moderation on abortion; specifically, the Texas likely voter’s preference is that abortion be illegal in Texas, except if the woman’s life or well-being is at risk or in the case of rape or incest. Specifically:

  • 52% of likely Texas voters believe current Texas law (abortion only if the woman’s life or well-being is at risk), 11% believe the law should be modified to make it harder to obtain an abortion, and 37% believe Texas abortion legislation should be left as it is now.
  • 29% of Texas likely voters would prefer legislation in Texas similar to that in force under Roe v. Wade prior to the June 2022 Dobbs decision, with 22% and 7% favoring abortion through 24 or 20 weeks respectively.
  • 71% of Texas likely voters believe the law of the land under Roe v. Wade prior to the June 2022 Dobbs decision was too permissive in terms of the length and conditions under which abortion was permitted.
  • Among Texas likely voters, 57% of women and 47% of men would make it easier to obtain an abortion in Texas while 43% of women and 53% of men would make it harder to obtain an abortion or leave Texas law as it is now.
  • Among Texas likely voters, 79% of Black women, 58% of Hispanic women and 51% of white women would make it easier to obtain an abortion in Texas while 21% of Black women, 42% of Hispanic women and 49% of white women would make it harder to obtain an abortion or leave Texas law as it is now.

“While a narrow majority of Texas voters believe the state’s current abortion legislation is too restrictive, more than two-thirds consider the policy that had been in force under Roe v. Wade to be too permissive,” said Mark P. Jones, TXHPF Director of Research and Analytics. “The median likely voter prefers an intermediate option where abortion is illegal unless the woman’s life is at risk or the pregnancy is the result of rape or incest.”

Overall, the poll found that Texans are more confident about the direction of the state than the direction of the country, with 47% of Texas likely voters believing that Texas is headed in the right direction, while 53% believe that the state is headed in the wrong direction. The poll also found that 27% of likely voters believe the United States is heading in the right direction, with 73% believing that the country is headed in the wrong direction.

Four TEGNA stations in Texas — WFAA, KHOU, KVUE and KENS — co-sponsored the poll with the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation.

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About the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation
The Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation operates as a nonpartisan, nonprofit 501(c)(3) organization, dedicated and committed to analyzing and exploring the political, economic, social, demographic, and familial attitudes and behaviors of Texas Hispanics. The Foundation conducts surveys, polls, research, data collection and analysis concerning the Hispanic population in Texas. You can find more information about the Foundation at www.TxHPF.org.

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Abbott up 7 points in Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation poll

September 26, 2022

Few voters are undecided, poll finds.

(DALLAS, TEXAS) — Governor Greg Abbott’s lead over Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke appears increasingly durable, with few voters indicating they are undecided or willing to change their mind at this stage in the race, according to a new poll from the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation (TXHPF) and TEGNA television stations in Texas.

Republican Abbott leads 51% to 44% among likely voters and 53% to 43% among the most likely (almost certain) voters. Only 3% of likely voters and 2% of most likely voters are undecided, with minor-party candidates garnering only marginal support. Virtually all likely voters who intend to vote for Abbott (95%) and O’Rourke (94%) say they are certain about their vote choice.

“Gov. Abbott’s strength among rural and Anglo voters continues to bolster his intransigent structural support in the 2022 race for Texas Governor,” said Jason Villalba, CEO of the TXHPF.  “While O’Rourke has shown himself to be a worthy and hard-working adversary, unless there is a marked shift in the composition of the November electorate, Governor Abbott will remain the political and thought leader of Texas politics.  Only new voters will be able to shift the tide.”

Hispanic likely voters intend to vote for O’Rourke by a margin of 53% to 39%, the poll found, while Abbott has a sizable lead among white voters and O’Rourke is the dominant choice among Black voters.

Republicans are leading in six other statewide races as well:

  • Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick leads Democratic challenger Mike Collier 48% to 42% among likely voters and by 50% to 42% among the most likely voters.
  • Attorney General Ken Paxton leads Democratic challenger Rochelle Garza 47% to 42% among likely voters and 49% to 42% among the most likely voters.
  • Comptroller Glenn Hegar leads Democratic challenger Janet Dudding 46% to 38% among likely voters and 49% to 39% among the most likely voters.
  • Land Commissioner candidate Dawn Buckingham leads Democratic challenger Jay Kleberg 46% to 38% among likely voters and 50% to 38% among the most likely voters.
  • Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller leads Democratic challenger Susan Hays 48% to 41% among likely voters and 51% to 40% among the most likely voters.
  • Railroad Commissioner Wayne Christian leads Democratic challenger Luke Warford 44% to 37% among likely voters and 47% to 37% among the most likely voters.

“All seven of the statewide Republican executive candidates from Abbott for governor to Wayne Christian for railroad commissioner are on course for victory, barring an unprecedented level of turnout by Millennials and especially Generation Z,” said Mark P. Jones, TXHPF Director of Research and Analytics.

Abbott is viewed favorably by 52% and unfavorably by 46% of Texas likely voters while O’Rourke is viewed favorably by 47% and unfavorably by 49% of Texas likely voters.

Donald Trump is viewed favorably by 49% and unfavorably by 50% of Texas likely voters while Joe Biden is viewed favorably by 42% and unfavorably by 57% of Texas likely voters.

Among likely Republican voters, Abbott is viewed favorably by 91%, Ted Cruz by 86% and Trump by 85%.

Among likely Democratic voters, O’Rourke is viewed favorably by 94%, Biden by 87% and Kamala Harris by 82%.

This is the first report of three drawing on data from a survey of 1,172 likely Texas voters that took place between September 6 and September 15 of 2022 (confidence interval of +/- 2.9%). The responses are weighted to provide a population that is representative of Texas registered voters.

Four TEGNA stations in Texas — WFAA, KHOU, KVUE and KENS — co-sponsored the poll with the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation.

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About the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation
The Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation operates as a nonpartisan, nonprofit 501(c)(3) organization, dedicated and committed to analyzing and exploring the political, economic, social, demographic, and familial attitudes and behaviors of Texas Hispanics. The Foundation conducts surveys, polls, research, data collection and analysis concerning the Hispanic population in Texas. You can find more information about the Foundation at www.TxHPF.org.

Download the Report

Biden’s favorability rating lags among Texas voters

April 13, 2022

Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation Poll shows voters have slightly favorable view of Abbott.

(DALLAS, Texas, April 13, 2022) — Texans have an unfavorable view of President Joe Biden and a slightly favorable view of Gov. Greg Abbott, according to newly released polling from the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation.

Abbott is viewed more favorably than his Democratic challenger, former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke. The lagging approval numbers for Biden and O’Rourke point to the difficult political landscape facing Texas Democrats approaching the fall elections. Among registered voters:

  • Biden is viewed favorably by 40% of Texans and unfavorably by 57%.
  • Former President Donald Trump is viewed favorably by 48% of Texans and unfavorably by 51%.
  • Abbott is viewed favorably by 48% and unfavorably by 45%.
  • O’Rourke is viewed favorably by 42% and unfavorably by 49%.

“The political landscape is challenging for Democrats in Texas,” said Dr. Mark Jones, Director of Research and Analytics for the TxHPF. “Both Biden and Beto currently find themselves underwater with Texas voters.”

Of 22 state and national political figures whose favorability was measured in the poll, former President Barack Obama, a Democrat, scored the highest favorable rating — 52% — while 46% of Texans view him unfavorably. Former President George W. Bush has a favorable rating of 47% and an unfavorable rating of 45%.

The TxHPF representative survey of 1,435 Texas registered voters took place between March 18 and March 28 (confidence interval of +/- 2.6%). The survey included an oversample of 435 Hispanic registered voters to allow for a more fine-grained analysis of this important demographic.

Among Hispanic registered voters in the poll:

  • Biden is viewed favorably by 50% and unfavorably by 44%.
  • Trump is viewed favorably by 38% and unfavorably by 59%.
  • Abbott is viewed favorably by 37% and unfavorably by 54%.
  • O’Rourke is viewed favorably by 53% and unfavorably by 34%.
  • Obama is viewed favorably by 66% and unfavorably by 29%.
  • Bush is viewed favorably by 50% and unfavorably by 40%.

“Texas Hispanics view Democrats more favorably than Republicans at this moment in time,” said TxHPF CEO and President Jason Villalba. “However, it is notably that Hispanics have a favorable view of former President Bush — a Texas Republican. It will be interesting to see how these numbers change during the 2022 campaign. Both parties would be wise to aggressively seek Hispanic support in this election and in future elections.”

The polling highlights the pivotal role played by Hispanics in the Democratic Party runoffs for comptroller and land commissioner.

In the land commissioner runoff, Sandragrace Martinez holds a 41% to 25% lead over Jay Kleberg in vote intention, due in large part to her four-to-one (56% to 14%) advantage among Hispanic likely voters.

In the comptroller runoff, Ángel Luis Vega is effectively tied with Janet T. Dudding (29% to 32%), due in large part to his 50% to 18% advantage among Hispanic likely voters.

In the Republican Party railroad commissioner runoff, Railroad Commissioner Wayne Christian enjoys a substantial lead over Sarah Stogner among likely GOP primary voters, 44% to 18%, with 38% undecided.

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About the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation
The Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation operates as a nonpartisan, nonprofit 501(c)(3) organization, dedicated and committed to analyzing and exploring the political, economic, social, demographic, and familial attitudes and behaviors of Texas Hispanics. The Foundation conducts surveys, polls, research, data collection and analysis concerning the Hispanic population in Texas. You can find more information about the Foundation at www.TxHPF.org.

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Hispanic Texans prefer O’Rourke over Abbott, have slightly favorable view of Biden

April 12, 2022

Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation report suggests Abbott unlikely to win statewide Hispanic vote.

(DALLAS, Texas, April 12, 2022) — Despite recent signs that Republicans are gaining ground among Hispanic Texas voters, a new polling report from the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation shows overall support among Hispanic Texans for Democratic gubernatorial nominee Beto O’Rourke and Democratic President Joe Biden.

The report utilizes a large sub-sample (615 cases) of Texas Hispanics within a statewide survey of Texas registered voters (1,435 cases) to better understand intragroup differences within the Texas Hispanic community regarding vote intention in the November 2022 elections, as well as opinions regarding Biden and former President Donald Trump. The TxHPF survey was conducted between March 18 and March 28.

The poll found that:

  • O’Rourke leads Republican Gov. Greg Abbott by an 18% margin (54% to 36%) among Hispanic likely voters and by a 14% margin (53% to 39%) among the Hispanics who are most likely to vote (almost certain voters).
  • In a hypothetical matchup for attorney general, Democrat Rochelle Garza leads Republican incumbent Ken Paxton by a 25% margin (57% to 32%) among Hispanic likely voters and by a 22% margin (57% to 35%) among the Hispanics who are most likely to vote (almost certain votes). However, neither candidate has yet secured a spot in the November election; both Paxton and Garza will face runoff elections for their party nominations in May, runoffs in which both are presently favored.
  • In a hypothetical matchup for lieutenant governor (included in TxHPF’s first report from the March poll), Democratic challenger Mike Collier leads Republican incumbent Dan Patrick 56% to 33% among Hispanic likely voters. Patrick has secured the GOP runoff, but Collier faces State Rep. Michelle Beckley in a May runoff for the Democratic nomination.
  • Among Hispanic registered voters, 50% view Biden favorably and 44% view him unfavorably.
  • Also among Hispanic registered voters, 38% view Trump favorably and 59% view him unfavorably.

“The survey results suggest the likelihood of Abbott winning a majority of the Hispanic vote in the fall is extremely low, but it’s possible that Abbott could win a majority of the Hispanic male vote in November,” said Dr. Mark Jones, the TxHPF Director of Research and Analytics. “Hispanic Texans view President Biden favorably, but only by a small margin.”

The poll also found that among likely voters:

  • While O’Rourke enjoys an 28% advantage over Abbott (59% to 31%) among Hispanic women, his 7% advantage among Hispanic men (49% to 42%) is one quarter that size.
  • Hispanics who live in households where Spanish is used more than English are significantly less likely to intend to vote for Abbott (17%) than are Hispanics who live in households where English is the dominant language (39%). 
  • Hispanic Evangelical Protestants are significantly more likely to intend to vote for Abbott (65%) and significantly less likely to intend to vote for O’Rourke (27%) than both Catholic (31% and 62%) and non-religious (25% and 58%) Hispanics.

“The Hispanic vote in many ways mirror the country as a whole, with Democrats doing better among women than men and Republicans doing better among evangelicals than non-evangelicals,” said Jason Villalba, CEO of the TxHPF. “Democratic candidates are polling better than Republicans among Hispanic likely voters right now, but their lead among Hispanics is likely not large enough to overcome their struggles to attract white voters across the state.”

The TxHPF released the first report from its March polling last week. That report showed Abbott leading O’Rourke by an 8% margin (50% to 42%) among all likely voters in the state and by a 12% margin (53% to 41%) among all of the most likely (almost certain) voters.

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About the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation
The Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation operates as a nonpartisan, nonprofit 501(c)(3) organization, dedicated and committed to analyzing and exploring the political, economic, social, demographic, and familial attitudes and behaviors of Texas Hispanics. The Foundation conducts surveys, polls, research, data collection and analysis concerning the Hispanic population in Texas. You can find more information about the Foundation at www.TxHPF.org.

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