Allred continues to outperform Trump among all Texas likely voters and moves to within 3% of Cruz.  Allred grows his lead over Cruz with Hispanic likely voters to 11%.

(Dallas, Texas, September 23, 2024) — Former President and Republican nominee Donald Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris by 6 percentage points among likely voters in Texas, according to new polling from the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation (TxHPF), after President Biden removed himself from consideration and Vice President Harris was voted to be the Democratic nominee at the Democratic National Convention in August 2024.

Trump’s lead in Texas (50% vs. 44%) has been cut in half since the TxHPF’s last poll was taken in April 2024.  While no longer leading among Texas Hispanics, Trump continues to poll strongly among Hispanic likely voters, where he trails Harris by only 6 percentage points (49% vs. 43%), a near reversal of his position among Hispanics from TxHPF’s April survey.

This survey, which was conducted between September 13 and September 18 among a representative sample of 1,200 Texas likely voters, has an overall margin of error of 2.83%.

Solely with respect to the Hispanic oversample, the survey maintains a margin of error of 5.43%, making the TxHPF’s Hispanic data the most detailed in Texas.

“While former President Trump’s lead in Texas has diminished materially among likely voters since Biden left the race, his strength among Texas Hispanic likely voters continues to show a striking resilience,” said TxHPF CEO Jason Villalba. “Given the size of the Hispanic voting population in Texas, if Harris were able to bolster her support among Hispanics in a meaningful way, she would have a significantly greater chance of flipping Texas blue,” said Villalba.

“As evidenced by these numbers, even in Texas, the excitement and enthusiasm generated by the Harris-Walz Campaign since Biden’s departure has clearly shaped the contours of the race across the country – even in red states like Texas,” said former President Clinton staff member, Regina Montoya, a member of the TxHPF Board of Directors. “The dynamism of the Harris campaign has had an obvious down ballot impact in the Allred vs. Cruz race, where Colin is now effectively tied with Cruz going into the final days of the campaign,” Montoya continued.

According to the TxHPF’s latest survey, in the race for U.S. Senate in Texas Democratic challenger Congressman Colin Allred continues to close the gap with two-term U.S. Senator Ted Cruz to within 3 percentage points among all Texas likely voters (48% vs. 45%), nearly within the margin of error. Building on his strength among Hispanics, Congressman Allred leads Sen. Cruz by 11 percentage points among Texas Hispanic likely voters, 50% to 39%.

“We have continued to see Allred consistently outperform the top of the ticket in this race. The data suggests that this speaks more to Allred’s favorables than what we are seeing in the National conversation,” added Villalba.

The single issue identified by Texas voters as the most important for their presidential vote decision varies dramatically depending on whether they intend to vote for Trump or Harris. According to TxHPF Chief Information and Analytics Officer, Dr. Mark P. Jones, “the most important issue for Trump voters is the economy (46%), followed by immigration and border security (37%) and the future of democracy (9%), while the most important issue for Harris voters is the future of democracy (41%), followed by reproductive rights (26%) and the economy (11%).

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About the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation The Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation operates as a nonpartisan, nonprofit 501(c)(3) organization, dedicated and committed to analyzing and exploring the political, economic, social, demographic, and familial attitudes and behaviors of Texas Hispanics. The Foundation conducts surveys, collects data and carries out research, and analysis concerning the Hispanic population in Texas. You can find more information about the Foundation at www.TxHPF.org.

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