Poll also identifies Cruz edge against lesser-known challengers.

(Dallas, Texas, May 25, 2023) — Former President Donald Trump holds a comfortable lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis among Texas registered voters who say they might participate in a March 2024 Republican primary, according to new polling from the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation (TxHPF). 

In a Texas Republican presidential primary restricted to Trump and DeSantis, 57% of Texas GOP primary voters would vote for Trump and 36% for DeSantis, with 5% undecided and 2% responding that they would not vote if Trump and DeSantis were their only two options. DeSantis announced his long-expected candidacy Wednesday and is the early favorite among several Republican candidates to emerge as Trump’s chief rival for the nomination.

“Donald Trump is the clear Republican frontrunner in Texas for now, but there is a long way to go,” said TxHPF President Jason Villalba. “Texas Republicans regard Trump favorably and he will be difficult to beat for the nomination here, but DeSantis certainly has a base of support upon which he can build. There is also time for other candidates to emerge and make this more than a two-person race for the nomination.”

Four 2024 presidential election scenarios were presented to Texas registered voters: Trump vs. President Joe Biden, DeSantis vs. Biden, Trump vs. Vice President Kamala Harris, DeSantis vs. Harris. Surveys of Texas registered voters tend to be more favorable for Democratic candidates and less favorable for Republican candidates than surveys of likely voters conducted in the months before an election.

• Trump’s vote intention (44%) surpasses that of Biden (42%) by 2 percentage points. 6% intend to vote for minor party candidates and 8% remain undecided.

• DeSantis’s vote intention (44%) surpasses that of Biden (42%) by 2 percentage points. 5% intend to vote for minor party candidates and 9% remain undecided.

• Trump’s vote intention (46%) surpasses that of Harris (39%) by 7 percentage points. 6% intend to vote for minor party candidates and 9% remain undecided.

• DeSantis’s vote intention (45%) surpasses that of Harris (40%) by 5 percentage points. 5% intend to vote for minor party candidates and 10% remain undecided.

The poll also measured the still-forming contest for the Texas seat in the U.S. Senate now held by Sen. Ted Cruz.

In a March 2024 Democratic Texas U.S. Senate primary featuring U.S. Congressman Colin Allred, State Sen. Roland Gutierrez and former Midland City Council Member John Love, 33% of Democratic primary voters would vote for Allred, 22% for Gutierrez and 4% for Love. 41% of these voters remain undecided.

Cruz leads Allred 47% to 40%, with 9% undecided and 4% voting for minor party candidates in a hypothetical November 2024 race for the Senate. However, Allred is still unknown to many voters; 49% of registered voters do not enough about Allred to have either a favorable or unfavorable opinion about him, while only 6% do not know enough about Cruz to have an opinion about the senator.

“Allred is the early leader among Democrats, but anyone who wins the Democratic nomination will have a difficult race against Cruz,” said Dr. Mark P. Jones, TxHPF Director of Research and Analytics. “It will be critical for the Democratic nominee to introduce themselves to Texans over the course of the next year and make their case for change.”

Texas registered voters were asked to provide favorable and unfavorable evaluations of 10 Texas political figures, with an additional option that they didn’t know enough about them to have an opinion: Cruz, Gov. Greg Abbott, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, U.S. Sens. Cruz and John Cornyn, U.S. Reps. Allred, Joaquin Castro and Dan Crenshaw, Attorney General Ken Paxton, Gutierrez and 2022 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Beto O’Rourke.

The five Texas political figures with the highest favorable ratings among Texas registered voters are Abbott (53%), Cruz (49%), O’Rourke (46%), Patrick (45%) and Paxton (42%).

The five Texas political figures with the highest unfavorable ratings among Texas registered voters are O’Rourke (45%), Cruz (45%), Abbott (43%), Cornyn (43%) and Paxton (40%).

This is the second report of three drawing on a survey of 1,000 Texas registered voters carried out between May 8 and May 17 of 2023. It has a margin of error of +/- 2.9% for the analysis of all registered voters and a margin of error of +/-4.8% and +/-5.1% for the analysis of Republican and Democratic primary voters respectively. The responses are weighted to provide a population that is representative of Texas registered voters.

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About the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation The Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation operates as a nonpartisan, nonprofit 501(c)(3) organization, dedicated and committed to analyzing and exploring the political, economic, social, demographic, and familial attitudes and behaviors of Texas Hispanics. The Foundation conducts surveys, polls, research, data collection and analysis concerning the Hispanic population in Texas. You can find more information about the Foundation at www.TxHPF.org.

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