Evangelical Protestant Hispanics split from others on candidates and issues, Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation poll shows

October 5, 2022

(DALLAS, TEXAS) — Hispanic voters in Texas prefer Democrat Beto O’Rourke in the Texas governor’s race, but those who identify themselves as Evangelical Protestants are much more likely to side with Republican Gov. Greg Abbott and side with Abbott on issues, according to new polling from the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation (TXHPF) and four TEGNA television stations in Texas.

The latest report from the groups’ September polling shows that while O’Rourke leads Abbott 51% to 39% among all Hispanic likely voters, Evangelical Protestant Hispanics overwhelmingly favor Abbott, 69% to 19%. O’Rourke is the choice among Catholic (56% to 33%) and non-religious (64% to 27%) Hispanic likely voters. In addition, Evangelical Protestant Hispanics are significantly more likely to support six immigration and border security policies that Abbott has implemented. In addition, Catholic Hispanics are much more likely than Evangelical Protestant Hispanics to support modifying current Texas abortion law to make it easier for a woman to obtain an abortion.

“The different political preferences among Hispanic Texans illustrate the diversity of this critical population of voters,” said Jason Villalba, CEO of the TXHPF. “There is not a monolithic Hispanic voting bloc in Texas. Just like we see with other groups of voters, Hispanics’ religious preferences can go a long way in predicting how they will vote in elections.”

A full report of the latest findings from the poll is available here. Among the information contained in the poll:

  • Among Hispanic women, O’Rourke leads 54% to 33%. Among Hispanic men, O’Rourke leads 48% to 45%.
  • O’Rourke holds a two-to-one advantage among younger Hispanics belonging to Generation Z and the Millennial generational cohort, who, combined, are expected to account for at least two-fifths of Texas Hispanic voters this fall. The two candidates are effectively tied among Hispanics belonging to the Baby Boomer/Silent Generation cohort and to Generation X.
  • Hispanics living in a household where Spanish is the dominant language favor O’Rourke 67% to 26%. Among Hispanics where English is the dominant language, O’Rourke’s lead is 49% to 43%.
  • 59% of Catholic Hispanics would modify current Texas abortion law to make it easier for a woman to obtain an abortion, while just 23% of Evangelical Protestant Hispanics would support changing state law to make it easier for a woman to obtain an abortion.

“Just as is the case within the Anglo population, Hispanics who are Evangelical Protestant overwhelmingly favor Abbott over O’Rourke,” said Mark P. Jones, TXHPF Chief Analytics and Information Officer.  “The policy and partisan preferences of Hispanic Evangelical Protestants are notably more similar to those of their Anglo brethren than they are to those of non-religious, and in some instances Catholic, Hispanics.”

This is the third report drawing on data from a survey of 1,172 likely Texas voters that took place between September 6 and September 15 of 2022 (confidence interval of +/- 2.9%). The responses are weighted to provide a population that is representative of Texas Hispanic registered voters. As part of the larger study, a population of 468 (margin of error +/- 4.5%) Texas Hispanic likely voters was surveyed.

Four TEGNA stations in Texas — WFAA, KHOU, KVUE and KENS — co-sponsored the poll with the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation.


About the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation
The Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation operates as a nonpartisan, nonprofit 501(c)(3) organization, dedicated and committed to analyzing and exploring the political, economic, social, demographic, and familial attitudes and behaviors of Texas Hispanics. The Foundation conducts surveys, polls, research, data collection and analysis concerning the Hispanic population in Texas. You can find more information about the Foundation at www.TxHPF.org.

Download the Report