Few voters are undecided, poll finds.

(DALLAS, TEXAS) — Governor Greg Abbott’s lead over Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke appears increasingly durable, with few voters indicating they are undecided or willing to change their mind at this stage in the race, according to a new poll from the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation (TXHPF) and TEGNA television stations in Texas.

Republican Abbott leads 51% to 44% among likely voters and 53% to 43% among the most likely (almost certain) voters. Only 3% of likely voters and 2% of most likely voters are undecided, with minor-party candidates garnering only marginal support. Virtually all likely voters who intend to vote for Abbott (95%) and O’Rourke (94%) say they are certain about their vote choice.

“Gov. Abbott’s strength among rural and Anglo voters continues to bolster his intransigent structural support in the 2022 race for Texas Governor,” said Jason Villalba, CEO of the TXHPF.  “While O’Rourke has shown himself to be a worthy and hard-working adversary, unless there is a marked shift in the composition of the November electorate, Governor Abbott will remain the political and thought leader of Texas politics.  Only new voters will be able to shift the tide.”

Hispanic likely voters intend to vote for O’Rourke by a margin of 53% to 39%, the poll found, while Abbott has a sizable lead among white voters and O’Rourke is the dominant choice among Black voters.

Republicans are leading in six other statewide races as well:

• Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick leads Democratic challenger Mike Collier 48% to 42% among likely voters and by 50% to 42% among the most likely voters.
• Attorney General Ken Paxton leads Democratic challenger Rochelle Garza 47% to 42% among likely voters and 49% to 42% among the most likely voters.
• Comptroller Glenn Hegar leads Democratic challenger Janet Dudding 46% to 38% among likely voters and 49% to 39% among the most likely voters.
• Land Commissioner candidate Dawn Buckingham leads Democratic challenger Jay Kleberg 46% to 38% among likely voters and 50% to 38% among the most likely voters.
• Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller leads Democratic challenger Susan Hays 48% to 41% among likely voters and 51% to 40% among the most likely voters.
• Railroad Commissioner Wayne Christian leads Democratic challenger Luke Warford 44% to 37% among likely voters and 47% to 37% among the most likely voters.

“All seven of the statewide Republican executive candidates from Abbott for governor to Wayne Christian for railroad commissioner are on course for victory, barring an unprecedented level of turnout by Millennials and especially Generation Z,” said Mark P. Jones, TXHPF Director of Research and Analytics.

Abbott is viewed favorably by 52% and unfavorably by 46% of Texas likely voters while O’Rourke is viewed favorably by 47% and unfavorably by 49% of Texas likely voters.

Donald Trump is viewed favorably by 49% and unfavorably by 50% of Texas likely voters while Joe Biden is viewed favorably by 42% and unfavorably by 57% of Texas likely voters.

Among likely Republican voters, Abbott is viewed favorably by 91%, Ted Cruz by 86% and Trump by 85%.

Among likely Democratic voters, O’Rourke is viewed favorably by 94%, Biden by 87% and Kamala Harris by 82%.

This is the first report of three drawing on data from a survey of 1,172 likely Texas voters that took place between September 6 and September 15 of 2022 (confidence interval of +/- 2.9%). The responses are weighted to provide a population that is representative of Texas registered voters.

Four TEGNA stations in Texas — WFAA, KHOU, KVUE and KENS — co-sponsored the poll with the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation.

###

About the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation
The Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation operates as a nonpartisan, nonprofit 501(c)(3) organization, dedicated and committed to analyzing and exploring the political, economic, social, demographic, and familial attitudes and behaviors of Texas Hispanics. The Foundation conducts surveys, polls, research, data collection and analysis concerning the Hispanic population in Texas. You can find more information about the Foundation at www.TxHPF.org.

Download the Report