Texas Hispanic Voter Trends

Allred continues to outperform Trump among all Texas likely voters and moves to within 3% of Cruz.  Allred grows his lead over Cruz with Hispanic likely voters to 11%.

(Dallas, Texas, September 23, 2024) — Former President and Republican nominee Donald Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris by 6 percentage points among likely voters in Texas, according to new polling from the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation (TxHPF), after President Biden removed himself from consideration and Vice President Harris was voted to be the Democratic nominee at the Democratic National Convention in August 2024.

Trump’s lead in Texas (50% vs. 44%) has been cut in half since the TxHPF’s last poll was taken in April 2024.  While no longer leading among Texas Hispanics, Trump continues to poll strongly among Hispanic likely voters, where he trails Harris by only 6 percentage points (49% vs. 43%), a near reversal of his position among Hispanics from TxHPF’s April survey.

This survey, which was conducted between September 13 and September 18 among a representative sample of 1,200 Texas likely voters, has an overall margin of error of 2.83%.

Solely with respect to the Hispanic oversample, the survey maintains a margin of error of 5.43%, making the TxHPF’s Hispanic data the most detailed in Texas.

“While former President Trump’s lead in Texas has diminished materially among likely voters since Biden left the race, his strength among Texas Hispanic likely voters continues to show a striking resilience,” said TxHPF CEO Jason Villalba. “Given the size of the Hispanic voting population in Texas, if Harris were able to bolster her support among Hispanics in a meaningful way, she would have a significantly greater chance of flipping Texas blue,” said Villalba.

“As evidenced by these numbers, even in Texas, the excitement and enthusiasm generated by the Harris-Walz Campaign since Biden’s departure has clearly shaped the contours of the race across the country – even in red states like Texas,” said former President Clinton staff member, Regina Montoya, a member of the TxHPF Board of Directors. “The dynamism of the Harris campaign has had an obvious down ballot impact in the Allred vs. Cruz race, where Colin is now effectively tied with Cruz going into the final days of the campaign,” Montoya continued.

According to the TxHPF’s latest survey, in the race for U.S. Senate in Texas Democratic challenger Congressman Colin Allred continues to close the gap with two-term U.S. Senator Ted Cruz to within 3 percentage points among all Texas likely voters (48% vs. 45%), nearly within the margin of error. Building on his strength among Hispanics, Congressman Allred leads Sen. Cruz by 11 percentage points among Texas Hispanic likely voters, 50% to 39%.

“We have continued to see Allred consistently outperform the top of the ticket in this race. The data suggests that this speaks more to Allred’s favorables than what we are seeing in the National conversation,” added Villalba.

The single issue identified by Texas voters as the most important for their presidential vote decision varies dramatically depending on whether they intend to vote for Trump or Harris. According to TxHPF Chief Information and Analytics Officer, Dr. Mark P. Jones, “the most important issue for Trump voters is the economy (46%), followed by immigration and border security (37%) and the future of democracy (9%), while the most important issue for Harris voters is the future of democracy (41%), followed by reproductive rights (26%) and the economy (11%).

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About the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation The Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation operates as a nonpartisan, nonprofit 501(c)(3) organization, dedicated and committed to analyzing and exploring the political, economic, social, demographic, and familial attitudes and behaviors of Texas Hispanics. The Foundation conducts surveys, collects data and carries out research, and analysis concerning the Hispanic population in Texas. You can find more information about the Foundation at www.TxHPF.org.

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Allred within 5% of Cruz among all Texas likely voters and leads Cruz by 5% among Hispanic likely voters.

(Dallas, Texas, April 16, 2024) — Former President and Republican nominee Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden by 12 percentage points among likely voters in Texas, according to new polling from the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation (TxHPF). More surprising, however, is Trump’s strength with Hispanic likely voters, where he leads Biden by 4 percentage points, 41% to 37%, driven largely by evangelical Hispanics and Hispanic males.

The survey, which was conducted between April 5 and April 10 among a representative sample of 1,600 Texas likely voters, has an overall margin of error of 2.45%.

Solely with respect to the Hispanic oversample, the survey maintains a margin of error of 4.88%, making the TxHPF’s Hispanic data, the most detailed in Texas.

“Over the most recent election cycles, Texas Hispanics have shown a growing willingness to consider, and ultimately vote for, Republican candidates, especially at the Presidential level,” said TxHPF CEO Jason Villalba. “This, however, is the first time we have seen a Republican statewide candidate attract a majority of Texas likely Hispanic voters. Trump’s appeal to Hispanic evangelicals and men has helped him cobble together a level of support from Hispanics not seen since George W. Bush.”

“As evidenced by some of the data we have seen recently in historically Democrat strongholds of Texas, Democrats can no longer assume that they will automatically receive an overwhelming majority of the Hispanic vote,” said former state Sen. Leticia Van de Putte, a member of the TxHPF Board of Directors. “While Democrats continue to see strengthening electoral support resulting from urbanization and with more progressive voters moving to Texas from other parts of the country, the Hispanic vote is clearly in play. Both political parties must vie for the vote of Hispanics. The party that comes out on top in the coming battles will hold political power in Texas for a generation.”

According to the TxHPF’s survey, the race for U.S. Senate in Texas is taking a much different trajectory than the race for president. Among all likely voters in Texas, Democratic challenger Congressman Colin Allred is within 5 percentage points of two-term U.S. Senator Ted Cruz. In an inverse of the presidential race, Congressman Allred leads Sen. Cruz by 5 percentage points among Texas Hispanic likely voters, 44% to 39 %.

“Senator Cruz is significantly underperforming Trump in all major voter categories around the state,” added Villalba. “Conversely, Allred continues to over perform the support received by President Biden in Texas.”

According to TxHPF Chief Information and Analytics Officer, Dr. Mark P. Jones, “while today a Trump victory over Biden in Texas looks to be a foregone conclusion, Cruz is facing a much more competitive challenge from Allred, a race that is certain to garner national attention as one of only two contests where Democrats have any hope of flipping a Republican-held seat as they attempt to retain control of the U.S. Senate.”

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About the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation

The Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation operates as a nonpartisan, nonprofit 501(c)(3) organization, dedicated and committed to analyzing and exploring the political, economic, social, demographic, and familial attitudes and behaviors of Texas Hispanics. The Foundation conducts surveys, polls, research, data collection and analysis concerning the Hispanic population in Texas. You can find more information about the Foundation at www.TxHPF.org.

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Poll also identifies Cruz edge against lesser-known challengers.

(Dallas, Texas, May 25, 2023) — Former President Donald Trump holds a comfortable lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis among Texas registered voters who say they might participate in a March 2024 Republican primary, according to new polling from the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation (TxHPF). 

In a Texas Republican presidential primary restricted to Trump and DeSantis, 57% of Texas GOP primary voters would vote for Trump and 36% for DeSantis, with 5% undecided and 2% responding that they would not vote if Trump and DeSantis were their only two options. DeSantis announced his long-expected candidacy Wednesday and is the early favorite among several Republican candidates to emerge as Trump’s chief rival for the nomination.

“Donald Trump is the clear Republican frontrunner in Texas for now, but there is a long way to go,” said TxHPF President Jason Villalba. “Texas Republicans regard Trump favorably and he will be difficult to beat for the nomination here, but DeSantis certainly has a base of support upon which he can build. There is also time for other candidates to emerge and make this more than a two-person race for the nomination.”

Four 2024 presidential election scenarios were presented to Texas registered voters: Trump vs. President Joe Biden, DeSantis vs. Biden, Trump vs. Vice President Kamala Harris, DeSantis vs. Harris. Surveys of Texas registered voters tend to be more favorable for Democratic candidates and less favorable for Republican candidates than surveys of likely voters conducted in the months before an election.

• Trump’s vote intention (44%) surpasses that of Biden (42%) by 2 percentage points. 6% intend to vote for minor party candidates and 8% remain undecided.

• DeSantis’s vote intention (44%) surpasses that of Biden (42%) by 2 percentage points. 5% intend to vote for minor party candidates and 9% remain undecided.

• Trump’s vote intention (46%) surpasses that of Harris (39%) by 7 percentage points. 6% intend to vote for minor party candidates and 9% remain undecided.

• DeSantis’s vote intention (45%) surpasses that of Harris (40%) by 5 percentage points. 5% intend to vote for minor party candidates and 10% remain undecided.

The poll also measured the still-forming contest for the Texas seat in the U.S. Senate now held by Sen. Ted Cruz.

In a March 2024 Democratic Texas U.S. Senate primary featuring U.S. Congressman Colin Allred, State Sen. Roland Gutierrez and former Midland City Council Member John Love, 33% of Democratic primary voters would vote for Allred, 22% for Gutierrez and 4% for Love. 41% of these voters remain undecided.

Cruz leads Allred 47% to 40%, with 9% undecided and 4% voting for minor party candidates in a hypothetical November 2024 race for the Senate. However, Allred is still unknown to many voters; 49% of registered voters do not enough about Allred to have either a favorable or unfavorable opinion about him, while only 6% do not know enough about Cruz to have an opinion about the senator.

“Allred is the early leader among Democrats, but anyone who wins the Democratic nomination will have a difficult race against Cruz,” said Dr. Mark P. Jones, TxHPF Director of Research and Analytics. “It will be critical for the Democratic nominee to introduce themselves to Texans over the course of the next year and make their case for change.”

Texas registered voters were asked to provide favorable and unfavorable evaluations of 10 Texas political figures, with an additional option that they didn’t know enough about them to have an opinion: Cruz, Gov. Greg Abbott, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, U.S. Sens. Cruz and John Cornyn, U.S. Reps. Allred, Joaquin Castro and Dan Crenshaw, Attorney General Ken Paxton, Gutierrez and 2022 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Beto O’Rourke.

The five Texas political figures with the highest favorable ratings among Texas registered voters are Abbott (53%), Cruz (49%), O’Rourke (46%), Patrick (45%) and Paxton (42%).

The five Texas political figures with the highest unfavorable ratings among Texas registered voters are O’Rourke (45%), Cruz (45%), Abbott (43%), Cornyn (43%) and Paxton (40%).

This is the second report of three drawing on a survey of 1,000 Texas registered voters carried out between May 8 and May 17 of 2023. It has a margin of error of +/- 2.9% for the analysis of all registered voters and a margin of error of +/-4.8% and +/-5.1% for the analysis of Republican and Democratic primary voters respectively. The responses are weighted to provide a population that is representative of Texas registered voters.

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About the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation The Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation operates as a nonpartisan, nonprofit 501(c)(3) organization, dedicated and committed to analyzing and exploring the political, economic, social, demographic, and familial attitudes and behaviors of Texas Hispanics. The Foundation conducts surveys, polls, research, data collection and analysis concerning the Hispanic population in Texas. You can find more information about the Foundation at www.TxHPF.org.

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(DALLAS, TEXAS) — Hispanic voters in Texas prefer Democrat Beto O’Rourke in the Texas governor’s race, but those who identify themselves as Evangelical Protestants are much more likely to side with Republican Gov. Greg Abbott and side with Abbott on issues, according to new polling from the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation (TXHPF) and four TEGNA television stations in Texas.

The latest report from the groups’ September polling shows that while O’Rourke leads Abbott 51% to 39% among all Hispanic likely voters, Evangelical Protestant Hispanics overwhelmingly favor Abbott, 69% to 19%. O’Rourke is the choice among Catholic (56% to 33%) and non-religious (64% to 27%) Hispanic likely voters. In addition, Evangelical Protestant Hispanics are significantly more likely to support six immigration and border security policies that Abbott has implemented. In addition, Catholic Hispanics are much more likely than Evangelical Protestant Hispanics to support modifying current Texas abortion law to make it easier for a woman to obtain an abortion.

“The different political preferences among Hispanic Texans illustrate the diversity of this critical population of voters,” said Jason Villalba, CEO of the TXHPF. “There is not a monolithic Hispanic voting bloc in Texas. Just like we see with other groups of voters, Hispanics’ religious preferences can go a long way in predicting how they will vote in elections.”

A full report of the latest findings from the poll is available here. Among the information contained in the poll:

• Among Hispanic women, O’Rourke leads 54% to 33%. Among Hispanic men, O’Rourke leads 48% to 45%.
• O’Rourke holds a two-to-one advantage among younger Hispanics belonging to Generation Z and the Millennial generational cohort, who, combined, are expected to account for at least two-fifths of Texas Hispanic voters this fall. The two candidates are effectively tied among Hispanics belonging to the Baby Boomer/Silent Generation cohort and to Generation X.
• Hispanics living in a household where Spanish is the dominant language favor O’Rourke 67% to 26%. Among Hispanics where English is the dominant language, O’Rourke’s lead is 49% to 43%.
• 59% of Catholic Hispanics would modify current Texas abortion law to make it easier for a woman to obtain an abortion, while just 23% of Evangelical Protestant Hispanics would support changing state law to make it easier for a woman to obtain an abortion.

“Just as is the case within the Anglo population, Hispanics who are Evangelical Protestant overwhelmingly favor Abbott over O’Rourke,” said Mark P. Jones, TXHPF Chief Analytics and Information Officer.  “The policy and partisan preferences of Hispanic Evangelical Protestants are notably more similar to those of their Anglo brethren than they are to those of non-religious, and in some instances Catholic, Hispanics.”

This is the third report drawing on data from a survey of 1,172 likely Texas voters that took place between September 6 and September 15 of 2022 (confidence interval of +/- 2.9%). The responses are weighted to provide a population that is representative of Texas Hispanic registered voters. As part of the larger study, a population of 468 (margin of error +/- 4.5%) Texas Hispanic likely voters was surveyed.

Four TEGNA stations in Texas — WFAA, KHOU, KVUE and KENS — co-sponsored the poll with the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation.

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About the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation
The Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation operates as a nonpartisan, nonprofit 501(c)(3) organization, dedicated and committed to analyzing and exploring the political, economic, social, demographic, and familial attitudes and behaviors of Texas Hispanics. The Foundation conducts surveys, polls, research, data collection and analysis concerning the Hispanic population in Texas. You can find more information about the Foundation at www.TxHPF.org.

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Few voters are undecided, poll finds.

(DALLAS, TEXAS) — Governor Greg Abbott’s lead over Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke appears increasingly durable, with few voters indicating they are undecided or willing to change their mind at this stage in the race, according to a new poll from the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation (TXHPF) and TEGNA television stations in Texas.

Republican Abbott leads 51% to 44% among likely voters and 53% to 43% among the most likely (almost certain) voters. Only 3% of likely voters and 2% of most likely voters are undecided, with minor-party candidates garnering only marginal support. Virtually all likely voters who intend to vote for Abbott (95%) and O’Rourke (94%) say they are certain about their vote choice.

“Gov. Abbott’s strength among rural and Anglo voters continues to bolster his intransigent structural support in the 2022 race for Texas Governor,” said Jason Villalba, CEO of the TXHPF.  “While O’Rourke has shown himself to be a worthy and hard-working adversary, unless there is a marked shift in the composition of the November electorate, Governor Abbott will remain the political and thought leader of Texas politics.  Only new voters will be able to shift the tide.”

Hispanic likely voters intend to vote for O’Rourke by a margin of 53% to 39%, the poll found, while Abbott has a sizable lead among white voters and O’Rourke is the dominant choice among Black voters.

Republicans are leading in six other statewide races as well:

• Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick leads Democratic challenger Mike Collier 48% to 42% among likely voters and by 50% to 42% among the most likely voters.
• Attorney General Ken Paxton leads Democratic challenger Rochelle Garza 47% to 42% among likely voters and 49% to 42% among the most likely voters.
• Comptroller Glenn Hegar leads Democratic challenger Janet Dudding 46% to 38% among likely voters and 49% to 39% among the most likely voters.
• Land Commissioner candidate Dawn Buckingham leads Democratic challenger Jay Kleberg 46% to 38% among likely voters and 50% to 38% among the most likely voters.
• Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller leads Democratic challenger Susan Hays 48% to 41% among likely voters and 51% to 40% among the most likely voters.
• Railroad Commissioner Wayne Christian leads Democratic challenger Luke Warford 44% to 37% among likely voters and 47% to 37% among the most likely voters.

“All seven of the statewide Republican executive candidates from Abbott for governor to Wayne Christian for railroad commissioner are on course for victory, barring an unprecedented level of turnout by Millennials and especially Generation Z,” said Mark P. Jones, TXHPF Director of Research and Analytics.

Abbott is viewed favorably by 52% and unfavorably by 46% of Texas likely voters while O’Rourke is viewed favorably by 47% and unfavorably by 49% of Texas likely voters.

Donald Trump is viewed favorably by 49% and unfavorably by 50% of Texas likely voters while Joe Biden is viewed favorably by 42% and unfavorably by 57% of Texas likely voters.

Among likely Republican voters, Abbott is viewed favorably by 91%, Ted Cruz by 86% and Trump by 85%.

Among likely Democratic voters, O’Rourke is viewed favorably by 94%, Biden by 87% and Kamala Harris by 82%.

This is the first report of three drawing on data from a survey of 1,172 likely Texas voters that took place between September 6 and September 15 of 2022 (confidence interval of +/- 2.9%). The responses are weighted to provide a population that is representative of Texas registered voters.

Four TEGNA stations in Texas — WFAA, KHOU, KVUE and KENS — co-sponsored the poll with the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation.

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About the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation
The Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation operates as a nonpartisan, nonprofit 501(c)(3) organization, dedicated and committed to analyzing and exploring the political, economic, social, demographic, and familial attitudes and behaviors of Texas Hispanics. The Foundation conducts surveys, polls, research, data collection and analysis concerning the Hispanic population in Texas. You can find more information about the Foundation at www.TxHPF.org.

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Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation Poll shows voters have slightly favorable view of Abbott.

(DALLAS, Texas, April 13, 2022) — Texans have an unfavorable view of President Joe Biden and a slightly favorable view of Gov. Greg Abbott, according to newly released polling from the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation.

Abbott is viewed more favorably than his Democratic challenger, former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke. The lagging approval numbers for Biden and O’Rourke point to the difficult political landscape facing Texas Democrats approaching the fall elections. Among registered voters:

• Biden is viewed favorably by 40% of Texans and unfavorably by 57%.

• Former President Donald Trump is viewed favorably by 48% of Texans and unfavorably by 51%.

• Abbott is viewed favorably by 48% and unfavorably by 45%.

• O’Rourke is viewed favorably by 42% and unfavorably by 49%.

“The political landscape is challenging for Democrats in Texas,” said Dr. Mark Jones, Director of Research and Analytics for the TxHPF. “Both Biden and Beto currently find themselves underwater with Texas voters.”

Of 22 state and national political figures whose favorability was measured in the poll, former President Barack Obama, a Democrat, scored the highest favorable rating — 52% — while 46% of Texans view him unfavorably. Former President George W. Bush has a favorable rating of 47% and an unfavorable rating of 45%.

The TxHPF representative survey of 1,435 Texas registered voters took place between March 18 and March 28 (confidence interval of +/- 2.6%). The survey included an oversample of 435 Hispanic registered voters to allow for a more fine-grained analysis of this important demographic.

Among Hispanic registered voters in the poll:

• Biden is viewed favorably by 50% and unfavorably by 44%.

• Trump is viewed favorably by 38% and unfavorably by 59%.

• Abbott is viewed favorably by 37% and unfavorably by 54%.

• O’Rourke is viewed favorably by 53% and unfavorably by 34%.

• Obama is viewed favorably by 66% and unfavorably by 29%.

• Bush is viewed favorably by 50% and unfavorably by 40%.

“Texas Hispanics view Democrats more favorably than Republicans at this moment in time,” said TxHPF CEO and President Jason Villalba. “However, it is notably that Hispanics have a favorable view of former President Bush — a Texas Republican. It will be interesting to see how these numbers change during the 2022 campaign. Both parties would be wise to aggressively seek Hispanic support in this election and in future elections.”

The polling highlights the pivotal role played by Hispanics in the Democratic Party runoffs for comptroller and land commissioner.

In the land commissioner runoff, Sandragrace Martinez holds a 41% to 25% lead over Jay Kleberg in vote intention, due in large part to her four-to-one (56% to 14%) advantage among Hispanic likely voters.

In the comptroller runoff, Ángel Luis Vega is effectively tied with Janet T. Dudding (29% to 32%), due in large part to his 50% to 18% advantage among Hispanic likely voters.

In the Republican Party railroad commissioner runoff, Railroad Commissioner Wayne Christian enjoys a substantial lead over Sarah Stogner among likely GOP primary voters, 44% to 18%, with 38% undecided.

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About the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation
The Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation operates as a nonpartisan, nonprofit 501(c)(3) organization, dedicated and committed to analyzing and exploring the political, economic, social, demographic, and familial attitudes and behaviors of Texas Hispanics. The Foundation conducts surveys, polls, research, data collection and analysis concerning the Hispanic population in Texas. You can find more information about the Foundation at www.TxHPF.org.

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Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation report suggests Abbott unlikely to win statewide Hispanic vote.

(DALLAS, Texas, April 12, 2022) — Despite recent signs that Republicans are gaining ground among Hispanic Texas voters, a new polling report from the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation shows overall support among Hispanic Texans for Democratic gubernatorial nominee Beto O’Rourke and Democratic President Joe Biden.

The report utilizes a large sub-sample (615 cases) of Texas Hispanics within a statewide survey of Texas registered voters (1,435 cases) to better understand intragroup differences within the Texas Hispanic community regarding vote intention in the November 2022 elections, as well as opinions regarding Biden and former President Donald Trump. The TxHPF survey was conducted between March 18 and March 28.

The poll found that:

• O’Rourke leads Republican Gov. Greg Abbott by an 18% margin (54% to 36%) among Hispanic likely voters and by a 14% margin (53% to 39%) among the Hispanics who are most likely to vote (almost certain voters).

• In a hypothetical matchup for attorney general, Democrat Rochelle Garza leads Republican incumbent Ken Paxton by a 25% margin (57% to 32%) among Hispanic likely voters and by a 22% margin (57% to 35%) among the Hispanics who are most likely to vote (almost certain votes). However, neither candidate has yet secured a spot in the November election; both Paxton and Garza will face runoff elections for their party nominations in May, runoffs in which both are presently favored.

• In a hypothetical matchup for lieutenant governor (included in TxHPF’s first report from the March poll), Democratic challenger Mike Collier leads Republican incumbent Dan Patrick 56% to 33% among Hispanic likely voters. Patrick has secured the GOP runoff, but Collier faces State Rep. Michelle Beckley in a May runoff for the Democratic nomination.

• Among Hispanic registered voters, 50% view Biden favorably and 44% view him unfavorably.

• Also among Hispanic registered voters, 38% view Trump favorably and 59% view him unfavorably.

“The survey results suggest the likelihood of Abbott winning a majority of the Hispanic vote in the fall is extremely low, but it’s possible that Abbott could win a majority of the Hispanic male vote in November,” said Dr. Mark Jones, the TxHPF Director of Research and Analytics. “Hispanic Texans view President Biden favorably, but only by a small margin.”

The poll also found that among likely voters:

• While O’Rourke enjoys an 28% advantage over Abbott (59% to 31%) among Hispanic women, his 7% advantage among Hispanic men (49% to 42%) is one quarter that size.

• Hispanics who live in households where Spanish is used more than English are significantly less likely to intend to vote for Abbott (17%) than are Hispanics who live in households where English is the dominant language (39%). 

• Hispanic Evangelical Protestants are significantly more likely to intend to vote for Abbott (65%) and significantly less likely to intend to vote for O’Rourke (27%) than both Catholic (31% and 62%) and non-religious (25% and 58%) Hispanics.

“The Hispanic vote in many ways mirror the country as a whole, with Democrats doing better among women than men and Republicans doing better among evangelicals than non-evangelicals,” said Jason Villalba, CEO of the TxHPF. “Democratic candidates are polling better than Republicans among Hispanic likely voters right now, but their lead among Hispanics is likely not large enough to overcome their struggles to attract white voters across the state.”

The TxHPF released the first report from its March polling last week. That report showed Abbott leading O’Rourke by an 8% margin (50% to 42%) among all likely voters in the state and by a 12% margin (53% to 41%) among all of the most likely (almost certain) voters.

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About the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation
The Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation operates as a nonpartisan, nonprofit 501(c)(3) organization, dedicated and committed to analyzing and exploring the political, economic, social, demographic, and familial attitudes and behaviors of Texas Hispanics. The Foundation conducts surveys, polls, research, data collection and analysis concerning the Hispanic population in Texas. You can find more information about the Foundation at www.TxHPF.org.

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The Hill

By Mark P. Jones

The Bush name was once synonymous with Texas Republican politics. From George H.W. Bush’s eight years as vice president (1981-89) and four years as president (1989-93) to George W. Bush’s six years as governor of Texas (1994-2000) and eight years as president (2001-2009), no family comes close to matching the Bush family’s gravitas and influence within Texas Republican politics during this period.

In fact, many date the Texas GOP’s final ascent to majority status to George W. Bush’s defeat of Ann Richards in the 1994 gubernatorial election, landslide re-election in 1998 and successful presidential bid in 2000. The last time a Democrat won a statewide election in Texas was in 1994, and since the 2002 election Republicans have controlled both chambers of the Texas Legislature, all due in large part to the groundwork laid by George H.W. Bush and, especially, by George W. Bush.

Today, the standard bearer of the Bush family political legacy in the Lone Star State, Land Commissioner George P. Bush (George H.W. Bush’s grandson and George W. Bush’s nephew), is on track to lose in a landslide to embattled Attorney General Ken Paxton in the May 24 Republican primary runoff for attorney general. A late March Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation (TxHPF) survey projects Bush will receive only between a fifth and a third of the GOP primary vote in May.

The Bush name, once an asset within the Texas GOP electorate, is now a liability. As an example, take the two-fifths of Republican primary voters who in the March TxHPF survey adamantly said they would never under any circumstance vote for George P. Bush. When asked why, two-thirds of these Republicans said it is because he is a member of the Bush family.

Today, the favorites of the most reliable Texas GOP primary voters are named Trump, Cruz and Abbott, not Bush. In the TxHPF survey, nine out of 10 (90 percent) of these Texas Republican primary voters have a favorable opinion of former President Donald Trump (70 percent have a very favorable opinion), 89 percent a favorable opinion of Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (54 percent very favorable) and 88 percent a favorable opinion of Sen. Ted Cruz (65 percent very favorable).

In sharp contrast, only 49 percent of these same diehard Texas Republicans have a favorable opinion of George W. Bush (18 percent very favorable) and 29 percent a favorable opinion of George P. Bush’s father, former Florida governor Jeb Bush (5 percent very favorable). George P. Bush is the most popular Bush among these Texas Republicans, but even he is viewed favorably by only 51 percent (14 percent very favorable).

And while a mere one in 10 of these Texas Republicans hold an unfavorable opinion of Trump (10 percent), Abbott (11 percent) and Cruz (11 percent), roughly one-half hold an unfavorable opinion of Jeb Bush (57 percent) and George W. Bush (46 percent), and two-fifths view George P. Bush (42 percent) unfavorably.

Between his great grandfather Prescott Bush’s election as U.S. senator in Connecticut in 1952 and George Prescott Bush’s reelection as Texas land commissioner in 2018, no family comes close to occupying the pinnacles of power in America for as long as the Bush family. One of its members has served as president for 12 years, as vice president for eight years, as Florida governor for eight years, as Texas governor for six years, as U.S. senator for 10 years, as a U.S. representative for  four years and as Texas land commissioner for eight years.

But on May 24 George P. Bush’s defeat in the Texas GOP attorney general primary runoff will mark the end, at least for the time being, of a political dynasty dating back 70 years. And the Bush dynasty will be extinguished not by Democrats, but rather by Texas Republicans, who once considered George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush to be their favorite sons. But in 2022, they will be responsible for ending the political career of George P. Bush, the last politically active Bush family member.

Mark P. Jones is the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy’s fellow in political science and the Joseph D. Jamail chair in Latin American Studies at Rice University as well as a co-author of “Texas Politics Today.” Follow him on Twitter @MarkPJonesTX.

Paxton, Collier, Garza hold leads in runoff matchups.

(DALLAS, Texas, April 5, 2022) — Republican statewide incumbents hold an advantage in the early stages of the 2022 elections in Texas, but the Democrats lining up to challenge them are within striking distance, according to new polling from the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation (TxHPF).

The TxHPF representative survey of 1,435 Texas registered voters took place between March 18 and March 28 (confidence interval of +/- 2.6%). The survey included an oversample of 435 Hispanic registered voters to allow for a more fine-grained analysis of this important demographic.

Among voters who say they are likely to vote in November:

• Gov. Greg Abbott leads Democratic gubernatorial nominee Beto O’Rourke by an 8% margin (50% to 42%) among likely voters and by a 12% margin (53% to 41%) among the most likely (almost certain) voters.

• Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick leads both of his potential Democratic challengers. Among likely voters, Patrick leads Mike Collier by a 6% margin (49% to 43%) and Michelle Beckley by an 8% margin (50% to 42%). Like Abbott, Patrick holds larger leads over his Democratic challengers (10% over Collier and 13% over Beckley) among the most likely voters. If current numbers hold, his Democratic challenger in November will be Collier; Collier leads Beckley in the May Democratic runoff by a 12% margin (43% to 31%) among likely voters and by a 16% margin (47% to 31%) among the most likely voters.

• In the Republican runoff for attorney general, incumbent Ken Paxton has a commanding lead over Land Commissioner George P. Bush. Paxton is ahead by a 42% margin (65% to 23%) among likely voters and by a 51% margin (71% to 20%) among the most likely voters. In the Democratic runoff contest for attorney general, Rochelle Mercedes Garza leads Joe Jaworski by a 15% margin (46% to 31%) among likely voters and by a 21% margin (51% to 30%) among the most likely voters. 

• In hypothetical November matchups, Paxton leads Garza and Jaworski by 6% and 7% respectively among likely voters and by 10% and 12% among almost certain voters, while Bush is in a statistical dead heat with both Democrats, tied with Garza among likely voters and ahead of her by 1% among almost certain voters and trailing Jaworski by 1% among likely voters and tied with him among almost certain voters.

“Republicans are certainly the favorites to win in November, but they have not yet put these contests away,” said Dr. Mark Jones, the TxHPF Director of Research and Analytics. “Texans continue to lean toward Republican candidates, as they have for many years, but Democrats still have time to make these elections competitive.”

The poll also found that:

• Two-fifths (40%) of Republican primary voters say that they would never vote for George P. Bush.  Two-thirds (66%) of these Republicans say a reason they would never vote for him is that he is a member of the Bush family.  The next most common reasons are his oversight of the Alamo (42%) and that he is not conservative enough (41%).

• Nine out of 10 (88%) March GOP attorney general primary voters who cast a ballot for fourth-place finisher Louie Gohmert intend to vote for Paxton in the May runoff and 9% for Bush. Supporters of third-place finisher Eva Guzman are more divided, 35% intending to vote for Bush, 28% for Paxton and 37% still undecided.

• In a November generic U.S. House ballot, the Republican candidate leads the Democratic candidate by a 7% margin (49% to 42%) among likely voters and by a 12% margin (52% to 40%) among the almost certain voters.

• Hispanic likely voters prefer O’Rourke over Abbott by a 14% margin (53% to 39%). Abbott leads among White likely voters and O’Rourke leads among Black likely voters.

“Hispanics continue to be a vital component of the Texas electorate.  Based on these early numbers, it is clear that the Latino vote in Texas will be determinative this November,” said Jason Villalba, CEO of the TxHPF. “If Democrats intend to win the Governor’s race or other statewide elections this November, they are going to have to significantly increase their advantage among Hispanic voters. If Republicans are successful in continuing to narrow the gap among Hispanic voters, they will be nearly impossible to beat in November.”

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About the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation
The Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation operates as a nonpartisan, nonprofit 501(c)(3) organization, dedicated and committed to analyzing and exploring the political, economic, social, demographic, and familial attitudes and behaviors of Texas Hispanics. The Foundation conducts surveys, polls, research, data collection and analysis concerning the Hispanic population in Texas. You can find more information about the Foundation at www.TxHPF.org.

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(DALLAS, Texas, Nov. 8, 2021) — Hispanic Texans view well-known Democratic figures more favorably than they view Republicans, but by relatively narrow margins, according to the results of polling by the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation (TxHPF).

The organization found in October polling that 52% of Hispanic Texans view President Joe Biden very or somewhat favorably, while 44% have a somewhat or very unfavorably view of Biden. Former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke, who is eyeing a Democratic run for governor in 2022, is viewed very or somewhat favorably by 53% of Hispanic Texans and very or somewhat unfavorably by 35%.

Hispanics in Texas give Gov. Greg Abbott a 43% favorable (very or somewhat) rating, while 50% say their view of him is somewhat or very unfavorable. Former President Donald Trump is viewed very or somewhat favorably by 38% of Hispanic Texans, while 57% view him somewhat or very unfavorably.

In the 2020 election, exit polls showed Trump performed relatively well among Hispanics, which was predicted in the months leading up to the race by TxHPF polling.

In the 2022 gubernatorial election, almost twice as many white Texans intend to vote for Abbott (58%) than O’Rourke (30%) and more than seven times as many Black Texans intend to vote for O’Rourke (76%) than Abbott (10%). Hispanic support is more evenly divided, with 49% of Hispanics favoring O’Rourke and 31% favoring Abbott.

Hispanics who are evangelical Protestants are more likely to intend to vote for Abbott (42%) than O’Rourke (37%) while Catholic Hispanics and non-religious Hispanics overwhelmingly favor O’Rourke (56% and 46%) over Abbott (29% and 28%).

Hispanics who live in households where Spanish is regularly spoken are notably more likely to vote for O’Rourke than Hispanics who live in English dominant households.

O’Rourke enjoys a substantially higher vote intention than Abbott among Hispanics with four or three Hispanic grandparents (52% vs. 29%), but his advantage over Abbott is only 2% (38% vs. 36%) among those Hispanics with fewer than three Hispanic grandparents.

“Hispanic Texans remain a pivotal voting group heading into the 2022 race for governor and other statewide offices,” said Jason Villalba, Chairman and CEO of the TxHPF. “The Hispanic population in Texas may continue to lean Democratic, but no party should take this diverse group for granted. Hispanic Texans will need to be part of any winning coalition in Texas next year and beyond.”

The report released today by the TxHPF analyzes favorability ratings of 20 Texas and national political figures. The figures draw on an October survey that showed Abbott and O’Rourke in a virtual dead heat in a hypothetical matchup for governor next year. 

Among all Texans, the analysis showed the following views of key political figures:

• Biden: 25% very favorable, 18% somewhat favorable, 10% somewhat unfavorable, 45% very unfavorable
• Trump: 33% very favorable, 14% somewhat favorable, 8% somewhat unfavorable, 43% very unfavorable
• Abbott: 30% very favorable, 19% somewhat favorable, 9% somewhat unfavorable, 38% very unfavorable
• O’Rourke: 28% very favorable, 16% somewhat favorable, 6% somewhat unfavorable, 39% very unfavorable
• Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick: 17% very favorable, 17% somewhat favorable, 8% somewhat unfavorable, 29% very unfavorable
• U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz: 32% very favorable, 16% somewhat favorable, 6% somewhat unfavorable, 39% very unfavorable
• U.S. Sen. John Cornyn: 13% very favorable, 21% somewhat favorable, 16% somewhat unfavorable, 27% very unfavorable

“Looking at all Texans, President Biden is not popular in the state, but former President Trump does not fare much better,” said TxHPF Director of Research and Analytics Mark P. Jones of Rice University. “Texans do not have overwhelmingly positive views of any current political figure. The president’s number will likely be a drag on Texas Democrats in 2022.”

For the survey 1,402 respondents were interviewed online between October 14 and 27, with a margin of error of +/- 2.6%. (The survey contained an oversample of Hispanic registered voters, with a total of 616 Texas Hispanics surveyed).

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About the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation The Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation operates as a nonpartisan, nonprofit 501(c)(3) organization, dedicated and committed to analyzing and exploring the political, economic, social, demographic, and familial attitudes and behaviors of Texas Hispanics. The Foundation conducts surveys, polls, research, data collection and analysis concerning the Hispanic population in Texas. You can find more information about the Foundation at www.TxHPF.org.

Download the Report