Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation report suggests Abbott unlikely to win statewide Hispanic vote.

(DALLAS, Texas, April 12, 2022) — Despite recent signs that Republicans are gaining ground among Hispanic Texas voters, a new polling report from the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation shows overall support among Hispanic Texans for Democratic gubernatorial nominee Beto O’Rourke and Democratic President Joe Biden.

The report utilizes a large sub-sample (615 cases) of Texas Hispanics within a statewide survey of Texas registered voters (1,435 cases) to better understand intragroup differences within the Texas Hispanic community regarding vote intention in the November 2022 elections, as well as opinions regarding Biden and former President Donald Trump. The TxHPF survey was conducted between March 18 and March 28.

The poll found that:

• O’Rourke leads Republican Gov. Greg Abbott by an 18% margin (54% to 36%) among Hispanic likely voters and by a 14% margin (53% to 39%) among the Hispanics who are most likely to vote (almost certain voters).

• In a hypothetical matchup for attorney general, Democrat Rochelle Garza leads Republican incumbent Ken Paxton by a 25% margin (57% to 32%) among Hispanic likely voters and by a 22% margin (57% to 35%) among the Hispanics who are most likely to vote (almost certain votes). However, neither candidate has yet secured a spot in the November election; both Paxton and Garza will face runoff elections for their party nominations in May, runoffs in which both are presently favored.

• In a hypothetical matchup for lieutenant governor (included in TxHPF’s first report from the March poll), Democratic challenger Mike Collier leads Republican incumbent Dan Patrick 56% to 33% among Hispanic likely voters. Patrick has secured the GOP runoff, but Collier faces State Rep. Michelle Beckley in a May runoff for the Democratic nomination.

• Among Hispanic registered voters, 50% view Biden favorably and 44% view him unfavorably.

• Also among Hispanic registered voters, 38% view Trump favorably and 59% view him unfavorably.

“The survey results suggest the likelihood of Abbott winning a majority of the Hispanic vote in the fall is extremely low, but it’s possible that Abbott could win a majority of the Hispanic male vote in November,” said Dr. Mark Jones, the TxHPF Director of Research and Analytics. “Hispanic Texans view President Biden favorably, but only by a small margin.”

The poll also found that among likely voters:

• While O’Rourke enjoys an 28% advantage over Abbott (59% to 31%) among Hispanic women, his 7% advantage among Hispanic men (49% to 42%) is one quarter that size.

• Hispanics who live in households where Spanish is used more than English are significantly less likely to intend to vote for Abbott (17%) than are Hispanics who live in households where English is the dominant language (39%). 

• Hispanic Evangelical Protestants are significantly more likely to intend to vote for Abbott (65%) and significantly less likely to intend to vote for O’Rourke (27%) than both Catholic (31% and 62%) and non-religious (25% and 58%) Hispanics.

“The Hispanic vote in many ways mirror the country as a whole, with Democrats doing better among women than men and Republicans doing better among evangelicals than non-evangelicals,” said Jason Villalba, CEO of the TxHPF. “Democratic candidates are polling better than Republicans among Hispanic likely voters right now, but their lead among Hispanics is likely not large enough to overcome their struggles to attract white voters across the state.”

The TxHPF released the first report from its March polling last week. That report showed Abbott leading O’Rourke by an 8% margin (50% to 42%) among all likely voters in the state and by a 12% margin (53% to 41%) among all of the most likely (almost certain) voters.

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About the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation
The Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation operates as a nonpartisan, nonprofit 501(c)(3) organization, dedicated and committed to analyzing and exploring the political, economic, social, demographic, and familial attitudes and behaviors of Texas Hispanics. The Foundation conducts surveys, polls, research, data collection and analysis concerning the Hispanic population in Texas. You can find more information about the Foundation at www.TxHPF.org.

Download the Report