Biden could win the state with two-thirds of Hispanic vote

(Dallas, Texas, October 1, 2020)– Hispanic voters are poised to determine which presidential candidate carries Texas in the November 3 election, according to a Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation analysis of polling, historical results and turnout projections.

The THPF analysis projects that former Vice President Joe Biden could narrowly win Texas by capturing two-thirds of the Hispanic vote in the state. This would be a slight improvement on the performance of 2016 Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, who lost the state overall but won 61% of the Hispanic vote, according to exit polls.

But based on polling conducted in August, THPF projects that President Donald Trump will narrow the gap among Hispanic voters enough to win Texas.

“Hispanic voters will decide who wins Texas,” said THPF President Jason Villalba, a former state representative from Dallas. “While we expect the majority of Hispanics will support Biden, the size of that majority will determine who will receive Texas’ 38 electoral votes. A surge in Hispanic support for Biden could turn the state blue. Both campaigns should be taking Hispanic Texans very seriously right now.”

The THPF August poll showed Biden leading Trump by 9.5 percentage points among Hispanic voters. Other polls have also given Biden a similar lead. For example, a Quinnipiac University poll released last week showed Biden leading Trump by 8 points among Texas Hispanics.

Based on the August polling, THPF Director of Research and Analytics Mark P. Jones of Rice University projects that Biden will win 58 percent of the Hispanic vote in Texas and that Trump will carry the state with 52 percent of the overall vote.

However, if Biden surpasses Clinton’s 2016 performance and wins two-thirds of the Hispanic vote, he will narrowly carry Texas, Jones projects.

“Biden can win Texas, but only if he is able to boost his support among Hispanics during the homestretch of the campaign,” Jones said. “So far, Biden has not performed as well among Texas Hispanics as Hillary Clinton did in 2016, and that works to Trump’s advantage.”

THPF, using exit polls and voter file reports, projects that Hispanics will make up 27% of the electorate in Texas this year — up from 24% in 2016 and 22% in 2012.

“The Texas electorate is increasingly Hispanic,” Villalba said. “We will continue to see Hispanic voters having more and more influence in the presidential race and in Texas elections up and down the ballot. Given our state’s large number of electoral votes, Hispanic Texans are one of the most important voter blocs in the country right now.”

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About the Texas Hispanic Policy FoundationThe Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation operates as a nonpartisan, nonprofit 501(c)(3) organization, dedicated and committed to analyzing and exploring the political, economic, social, demographic, and familial attitudes and behaviors of Texas Hispanics. In collaboration with Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, the Foundation conducts surveys, polls, research, data collection and analysis concerning the Hispanic population in Texas. You can find more information about the Foundation at www.TxHPF.org.

HISPANIC SHARE OF VOTERS CASTING A BALLOT INTEXAS PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS (based on exit poll and voter file reports)

2016 PRESIDENTIAL VOTE FROM EXIT POLL

PROJECTED 2020 PRESIDENTIAL VOTE BASED ON AUGUST THPF SURVEY

ESTIMATED 2020 PRESIDENTIAL VOTEWITH BIDEN WINNING 2/3 OF HISPANIC VOTE (all else constant)