Border & Immigration

Conversely, 57% of all Texas likely voters and 58% of Texas Hispanic likely voters oppose Governor Abbott’s plan to use public tax dollars to help subsidize private school tuition.

Further, Texans are split between a narrow majority (56%) who believe abortion should be legal through either 12 (29%) or 23-24 (27%) weeks of pregnancy and those (44%) who believe it should be illegal unless the mother’s life is at risk (15%) or also if the pregnancy was due to rape or incest (29%).

(Dallas, Texas, April 24, 2024) — Gov. Greg Abbott receives high marks from Texans regarding border security with fully 54% of all Texas likely voters approving his handling of the situation at the United States-Mexico border, according to new polling from the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation (TxHPF). Likewise, Hispanic Texas likely voters support Gov. Abbott’s border security policies by similar margins, though less than a majority at 47%.

Gov. Abbott’s hallmark education policy, using public tax dollars to provide subsidies to Texas parents whose children attend private school, does not fare as well, with 57% of all Texas likely voters in opposition to the use of public tax dollars for private tuition.  Hispanic likely voters oppose the “voucher” plan by 58% and African American likely voters oppose the plan by 68%.      

The survey, which was conducted between April 5 and April 10 among a representative sample of 1,600 Texas likely voters, has an overall margin of error of 2.45%.  

Solely with respect to the Hispanic oversample, the survey maintains a margin of error of 4.88%, making the TxHPF’s Hispanic data, the most detailed in Texas.

“With respect to border security, Gov. Abbott has his hand squarely on the pulse of what Texas voters want.  From busing immigrants to other states, to supporting high levels of spending on border security, these numbers show that all Texans, including Hispanics, support Governor Abbott’s muscular policies on these issues,” said Jason Villalba, Chairman and CEO of the TXHPF.  “In stark contrast however, Governor Abbott’s top education priority, which provides for using public tax dollars to subsidize private school tuition, is universally opposed by Texans from all segments: urban or rural, Anglo or Hispanic, male and female. This issue will not win him new votes in a general election, and it could cut into his support among primary voters,” continued Villalba.          

Mark P. Jones, the TxHPF’s Chief Information and Analytics Officer and the Fellow in Political Science at Rice University’s Baker Institute noted that “61% of likely voters support Governor Abbott’s policy of spending $3.5 billion annually on border security, including 86% of Republicans, 64% of Independents and 33% of Democrats, as well as 58% of Hispanics.”

Jones also noted the existence of a sharp partisan split in regard to abortion policy in Texas, commenting that “76% of Republicans want abortion be illegal except when the woman’s life is at risk or when the woman’s life is at risk or in the case of rape or incest, while 90% of Democrats want abortion to be legal through either 12 or 23-24 weeks of pregnancy.”

And, in regard to the Hispanic community, Jones commented that “contrary to some conventional wisdom, two-thirds of Hispanic Catholics prefer an abortion policy which allows for abortions to take place through at least 12 weeks of pregnancy, with Hispanic opposition to abortion  concentrated among the state’s growing population of Born-Again Christian Hispanics, two-thirds of whom want abortion restricted at the most to instances where the woman’s life is at risk or when the pregnancy is the result of rape or incest.

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About the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation

The Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation operates as a nonpartisan, nonprofit 501(c)(3) organization, dedicated and committed to analyzing and exploring the political, economic, social, demographic, and familial attitudes and behaviors of Texas Hispanics. The Foundation conducts surveys, polls, research, data collection and analysis concerning the Hispanic population in Texas. You can find more information about the Foundation at www.TxHPF.org.

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(DALLAS, TEXAS) — Public support for Gov. Greg Abbott’s approach to border security and immigration has helped propel him to a lead in his race for re-election, according to newly released polling data from the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation (TXHPF) and TEGNA television stations in Texas.

An absolute majority of Texas likely voters support six border policies that Abbott has implemented, while between one-fifth and one-third of likely voters oppose these policies. Support for Abbott’s approach on the high-profile issue helps explain the polling lead he has consistently maintained: Polling that the TXHPF released earlier this week showed that Abbott leads O’Rourke 51% to 44% among likely voters and 53% to 43% among the most likely (almost certain) voters.

Specifically:

• 66% of likely voters support Texas state and local law enforcement arresting people who cross the border with Mexico illegally, while 22% oppose.
• 60% of Texas likely voters support Texas deploying the Texas National Guard to patrol the U.S.-Mexico border, while 28% oppose.
• 60% of Texas likely voters support Texas sending the Texas DPS to patrol the U.S.- Mexico border, while 27% oppose.
• 57% of Texas likely voters support Texas building a border wall, while 34% oppose.
• 54% of Texas likely voters support Texas paying to send asylum seekers by bus to Chicago, New York City and Washington, D.C., while 31% oppose.
• 54% of Texas likely voters support Texas spending $1.5 billion every year on border security, while 32% oppose.

All six policies draw support from a majority of white voters. Three policies garner support from a majority of Hispanic voters and one policy gets support from a majority of Black voters.

Only one in three (34%) likely voters approve of Biden’s handling of the situation at the U.S.-Mexico border, significantly less than the 56% who approve of Abbott’s handling of the situation at the border.

“Support for Governor Abbott’s approach to border security is a major factor in the lead that he holds over Beto O’Rourke as we enter the final weeks of the campaign,” said Jason Villalba, CEO of the TXHPF. “At a time when many issues divide clearly along partisan lines, the issue of border security has helped Abbott attract independents and some Democrats, as well as overwhelming support from Republicans. As long as border security remains a major issue in the race, the Governor’s lead will be difficult to overcome.”

The poll found that voters want some moderation on abortion; specifically, the Texas likely voter’s preference is that abortion be illegal in Texas, except if the woman’s life or well-being is at risk or in the case of rape or incest. Specifically:

• 52% of likely Texas voters believe current Texas law (abortion only if the woman’s life or well-being is at risk), 11% believe the law should be modified to make it harder to obtain an abortion, and 37% believe Texas abortion legislation should be left as it is now.
• 29% of Texas likely voters would prefer legislation in Texas similar to that in force under Roe v. Wade prior to the June 2022 Dobbs decision, with 22% and 7% favoring abortion through 24 or 20 weeks respectively.
• 71% of Texas likely voters believe the law of the land under Roe v. Wade prior to the June 2022 Dobbs decision was too permissive in terms of the length and conditions under which abortion was permitted.
• Among Texas likely voters, 57% of women and 47% of men would make it easier to obtain an abortion in Texas while 43% of women and 53% of men would make it harder to obtain an abortion or leave Texas law as it is now.
• Among Texas likely voters, 79% of Black women, 58% of Hispanic women and 51% of white women would make it easier to obtain an abortion in Texas while 21% of Black women, 42% of Hispanic women and 49% of white women would make it harder to obtain an abortion or leave Texas law as it is now.

“While a narrow majority of Texas voters believe the state’s current abortion legislation is too restrictive, more than two-thirds consider the policy that had been in force under Roe v. Wade to be too permissive,” said Mark P. Jones, TXHPF Director of Research and Analytics. “The median likely voter prefers an intermediate option where abortion is illegal unless the woman’s life is at risk or the pregnancy is the result of rape or incest.”

Overall, the poll found that Texans are more confident about the direction of the state than the direction of the country, with 47% of Texas likely voters believing that Texas is headed in the right direction, while 53% believe that the state is headed in the wrong direction. The poll also found that 27% of likely voters believe the United States is heading in the right direction, with 73% believing that the country is headed in the wrong direction.

Four TEGNA stations in Texas — WFAA, KHOU, KVUE and KENS — co-sponsored the poll with the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation.

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About the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation
The Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation operates as a nonpartisan, nonprofit 501(c)(3) organization, dedicated and committed to analyzing and exploring the political, economic, social, demographic, and familial attitudes and behaviors of Texas Hispanics. The Foundation conducts surveys, polls, research, data collection and analysis concerning the Hispanic population in Texas. You can find more information about the Foundation at www.TxHPF.org.

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The Dallas Morning News

By Jason Villalba

My son George is 8 years old, attends public school, is about to be in the third grade, and he is Hispanic, like most of the little ones who lost their lives last week in Uvalde. His teeth are a little too big for his mouth and his hair is almost always disheveled. But he never fails to warmly hug his mama when she sees him and he is always there to be a friend to his fellow students at his Dallas ISD elementary school.

Like everyone else in Texas, I watched the developments in Uvalde in absolute and abject horror. How could this happen? Who would be so evil as to attack little children? What can be done so that this doesn’t happen again?

But, against all logic and reason, we know that in Texas and the United States of America, this will happen again. Soon and frequently. Why?

Is it because Texans have been acculturated to accept the slaughter of innocent children? As a parent of three children in public school, I am certain that the answer to that question is a resounding, “No!”

Is it because the Second Amendment of the U.S. Constitution guarantees the right of law-abiding citizens to keep and bear arms? As a licensed carrier of firearms in my home and car and on my person, the answer to that line of questioning is also “No.”

The reason we are here, yet again, experiencing the collective tragedy of Uvalde, is because of the fecklessness and political cowardice of our elected officials.

How do I know this? Because I used to be an elected official. I represented a wealthy and privileged district of Dallas as a member of the Texas Legislature.

Many members of the Texas House and Senate and various other statewide officials have a vested interest in supporting unfettered and unrestricted access to the most lethal firearms available on the non-military market. There is literally no restriction that they will support unless the National Rifle Association and the Texas State Rifle Association allow them to support it.

This is not hyperbole. During my career in politics, there was zero tolerance for any deviation from the position of the NRA or the TSRA.

I once opposed TSRA legislation that would allow anyone over the age of 18 in Texas to purchase and carry, publicly and openly, any firearm they chose, without any regulation, background check, license or training.

They called the legislation “Constitutional Carry.” Based on discussion with my wife, neighbors and various community leaders, I called this legislation “Terrorist Carry.”

I opposed this foolhardy legislation because I knew it would result in violence and harm to my community. For this opposition, I was attacked.

The ads that the various Texas gun lobby associations published against me had photographs of young women being violated while an evil-looking black-and-white photo of me lurked in the background “allowing” it all to happen. The caption read, “Villalba doesn’t want you to protect your family from thugs and criminals.”

In reality, what I wanted was for my wife and children to be able to go to the local park without the fear that a mentally unstable person, with access to high-powered weaponry, would act out the evil vignettes he had been reading about in his various online communities.

During my time in the Texas Legislature, I advocated for commonsense gun control, for mental health access for students who exhibited proclivities to violence, and for the creation of a school marshal program that provides for armed, licensed Texas peace officers to protect all of our schools.

Unfortunately, the only legislation that passed was the bill that approved armed officers in Texas schools.

As someone who has been in a position to actually address this continuing problem, I can attest that the solution to the problem that we face today is “all of the above.”

We must harden the “soft” targets (grocery stores, libraries, schools, etc.), we must quickly provide access to mental health care for those individuals in our community who exhibit inclinations to violence, and we must limit access to high-powered and lethal firearms, body armor and ammunition to only those individuals who have undertaken a thorough and lengthy inspection process.

My son has no idea what happened in Uvalde this week. But he knows that the grown-ups always make sure that he has pizza Friday at his school and that he and his pops can watch a Mavs game together.

I know how many families out there have little ones like George. I am pleading with you today, please do what you can (i.e., vote) to ensure that our little third and fourth graders can continue to climb on the shoulders of their parents, smile that slobbery smile, and laugh.

If you don’t vote for those officials who have the courage to take the necessary actions to protect our children, there is no guarantee that you will ever hear that laugh again.

Just ask the parents in Uvalde.

Jason Villalba is the CEO of the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation, and a former member of the Texas House. He wrote this for The Dallas Morning News.

The Hill

By Mark P. Jones

Democratic hopes for turning Texas blue hinge heavily on winning the vote of a large majority of the state’s growing Hispanic population. Democrats often contrast their progressive policies on immigration and border security with the more conservative policies advocated by Republicans as a reason why their share of the Hispanic vote will increase. 

And yet, when Texas Hispanics are asked about their opinions on immigration and border policies, their preferences tend to align more with those of Republicans than Democrats.

Many Democrats were convinced that Donald Trump’s conservative, and at times offensive, policies on immigration and border security would alienate Hispanics to such an extent that they would flock in droves to the Democratic Party in 2020.  Instead, according to exit polls, Trump won 32 percent of the Latino vote nationally (up from 28 percent in 2016) and 41 percent of the Latino vote in Texas (up from 34 percent in 2016). In the Rio Grande Valley’s two most populous countries (Hidalgo and Cameron; directly across the border from Mexico), where Hispanics account for more than 90 percent of the population, Trump won 41 percent and 43 percent of the vote in 2020 (up from 28 percent and 32 percent, respectively, in 2016). 

In late October the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation conducted a representative public opinion survey of 1,402 Texas registered voters, including 616 Texas Hispanics, who are the focus here. 

The survey results reveal that more Texas Hispanics support than oppose four out of five of the border security policies that have been implemented by Republican Gov. Greg Abbott on his own via executive actions or through legislation passed by the Texas Legislature under the leadership of Republican Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and Republican House Speaker Dade Phelan.

Twice as many Texas Hispanics support (51 percent) than oppose (25 percent) the Texas policy of having Department of Public Safety (DPS) officers and local law enforcement arrest immigrants who cross the U.S.-Mexico border illegally. (The remaining 24 percent neither support nor oppose the policy.)

Far more Hispanics support dispatching DPS officers (48 percent) and Texas National Guard soldiers (46 percent) to patrol along the border than oppose these policies (30 percent and 32 percent).

A narrow plurality of Texas Hispanics even supports spending $1.5 billion of state funds annually on border security, funds that could be used instead to help address documented needs in Texas public schools, where more than half of the students are Hispanic.

The only Texas policy opposed by a plurality of Texas Hispanics is the state building a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border, which is opposed by 45 percent, but is nonetheless still supported by 38 percent.

The closer one gets to the South Texas-Mexico border, the greater the level of support among Texas Hispanics for Republicans’ border security policies. This is a problem for congressional Democrats, since under the new Republican-drawn Texas congressional map, only three congressional districts (the 15th, 23rd and 28th) are considered to be competitive, and all three are located either in whole or part in South Texas, with two presently held by Democrats and one by a Republican. 

Turning to federal immigration policies, if national Democrats believe creating more open borders and making it easier for immigrants to seek asylum will significantly boost their support among Hispanics, they are likely mistaken, at least in regard to the Lone Star State. 

When it comes to increasing the number of immigrants allowed into the United States from Mexico and Central America, Texas Hispanics are evenly split, with 39 percent in opposition and 37 percent in support. This is a policy that has an adverse impact on the Democratic Party’s ability to generate support within the Anglo (non-Hispanic white) community. In Texas, 59 percent of whites oppose this policy, compared to 25 percent who support it.

On the related policy of increasing the number of refugees and asylum seekers allowed into the United States, 42 percent of Texas Hispanics oppose this policy compared to 35 percent who support it. And while this policy is at best a breakeven proposition among Texas Hispanics, it is quite unpopular among Anglo Texans, 59 percent of whom oppose it compared to 27 percent who support it.

Both Gov. Abbott and President Biden are underwater in regard to Texas Hispanic approval of their handling of the situation at the U.S.-Mexico border.  But Abbott (42 percent approve/48 percent disapprove) is far closer to the surface than Biden (35 percent/55percent).

Texas Hispanics will in large part determine whether Texas remains red or turns purple or even blue this decade. For years commentators have predicted Texas would turn blue as the Hispanic share of the state population increased, to the point where in 2022 it will eclipse the Anglo population. 

But that prediction depended on Hispanics voting overwhelmingly for Democrats, something not seen in the Lone Star State, where statewide GOP candidates continue to win between 35 percent and 45 percent of the Hispanic vote.  

If current Hispanic support for Republican immigration policies is any signal, we can expect Texas Republicans to maintain the backing of roughly two-fifths of Texas Hispanic voters in the 2022 midterms. This would mean the continuation of the Republican statewide winning streak that dates back to 1996 and a GOP net gain of between one and three U.S. House seats. This advantage could prove pivotal to the Republican effort to retake control of the U.S. House.

Mark P. Jones is the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy’s fellow in political science and the Joseph D. Jamail chair in Latin American Studies at Rice University as well as a co-author of “Texas Politics Today.” Follow him on Twitter @MarkPJonesTX.

(DALLAS, Texas, Nov. 17, 2021) — Hispanic Texans — especially in South Texas — are more likely to support than oppose several border policies pushed by Gov. Greg Abbott and other Texas Republicans, according to recent polling by the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation (TxHPF).

The organization found in October polling that Abbott’s border policies are more popular among all Texans than they among Hispanic Texans, but by relatively small margins. In fact, on four out of five of Abbott’s signature border policies, Texas Hispanics voiced more support than opposition.

“Nobody should continue to assume that Hispanic Texans will automatically align with one party or another,” said Jason Villalba, Chairman and CEO of the TxHPF. “These poll numbers show that Texas Hispanics hold a diversity of viewpoints on border-related issues and help explain why Republicans did relatively well with key Hispanic groups in the 2020 election. Once again, the lesson here is that Hispanic Texans cannot and will not be taken for granted by any political party.”

Specifically, the TxHPF polling found that:

• 51% of Texas Hispanics support and 25% oppose the Texas policy of having Texas Department of Public Safety troopers and local law enforcement arrest immigrants who cross the border illegally.
• 46% of Texas Hispanics support and 32% oppose the Texas policy of sending Texas National Guard soldiers to patrol along the border.
• 48% of Texas Hispanics support and 30% oppose the Texas policy of sending DPS officers to patrol along the border.
• 41% of Texas Hispanics support and 35% oppose the Texas policy of spend $1.5 billion annually in state funds on border security.
• 38% of Texas Hispanics support and 45% oppose the Texas policy of building a wall along the border.

Support for all five of those policies was stronger among all Texans than Hispanic Texans, the polling found. Also, importantly, Hispanics in South Texas are significantly more likely to support the five Abbott border security policies than are Hispanics elsewhere in the state.

“There is greater support for Republican-led border policies among Texas Hispanics in South Texas and rural areas than around the largest cities, which mirrors what polling and election results show among all Texans,” said TxHPF Director of Research and Analytics Mark P. Jones of Rice University. “The fact that there is considerable support among Texas Hispanics for Abbott’s policies certainly complicates the task facing any Democrat trying to win statewide. This polling highlights many of the issues where Republicans can have success with Hispanic Texans, especially in certain regions.”

The polling also found that more Texas Hispanics oppose than support increasing the number of refugees and asylum seekers allowed into the United States. By a narrow margin, Hispanic Texans are also more likely to oppose than support increasing the number of immigrants from Mexico and Central America allowed into the United States.

The numbers of part of the third installment of polling data conducted by the TxHPF in October. Previous installments showed that Texas Hispanics prefer Democrat Beto O’Rourke over Abbott in a hypothetical 2022 race for governor and that 52% of Hispanic Texans view President Joe Biden very or somewhat favorably.

For the survey 1,402 respondents were interviewed online between October 14 and 27, with a margin of error of +/- 2.6%. (The survey contained an oversample of Hispanic registered voters, with a total of 616 Texas Hispanics surveyed).

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About the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation The Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation operates as a nonpartisan, nonprofit 501(c)(3) organization, dedicated and committed to analyzing and exploring the political, economic, social, demographic, and familial attitudes and behaviors of Texas Hispanics. The Foundation conducts surveys, polls, research, data collection and analysis concerning the Hispanic population in Texas. You can find more information about the Foundation at www.TxHPF.org.

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